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Hedera (HBAR) is approaching a technical and structural moment that traders have been monitoring for months. After a prolonged period of consolidation and several failed recovery attempts, price action, ETF flows, and spot market behavior are finally starting to align.
What makes the current setup notable is not only the emerging chart pattern, but the timing. The same resistance zone that rejected multiple rallies earlier this year is now being tested alongside the strongest ETF demand Hedera has recorded in 2026.
W Base Structure Signals Seller Exhaustion
On the daily chart, Hedera is forming a well-defined W pattern, commonly known as a double bottom. This formation typically appears when price tests a key support level twice and successfully holds, indicating that selling pressure is weakening.
In Hedera’s case, the $0.102 zone has repeatedly acted as a strong demand floor. Each revisit has attracted buyers, preventing further downside and establishing a stable base. From this support, price has rotated higher toward the $0.135 area, which serves as the neckline of the W structure.
A confirmed breakout above this neckline would project a potential upside move of approximately 31%, placing technical targets near the $0.152 and $0.176 zones. However, history suggests that this level will not be cleared easily.
EMA Confluence Reinforces the Importance of Resistance
Earlier rallies failed not because of weak bounces, but because Hedera could not reclaim its key exponential moving averages (EMAs). EMAs place greater emphasis on recent price data and are widely used to differentiate corrective moves from true trend reversals.
In early January, HBAR briefly reclaimed its 20-day EMA, triggering short-lived rallies ranging from 8% to 16%. Each time, the price stalled near the 50-day EMA and rolled over shortly after.
That same 50-day EMA now aligns closely with the W pattern neckline around $0.127–$0.135. This convergence means a breakout would represent more than a chart pattern completion — it would mark the first sustained reclaim of medium-term trend resistance in weeks.
ETF Inflows and Spot Outflows Point to Strengthening Demand
Supporting the technical structure is a clear improvement in underlying demand. Hedera recorded its strongest ETF inflow week of 2026, with net inflows reaching approximately $1.46 million for the week ending January 16.
ETF inflows tend to represent longer-term, lower-frequency capital. This type of demand often absorbs supply during consolidation phases rather than chasing price after breakouts, making it particularly relevant at base-building stages.
At the same time, spot market data shows rising net outflows from exchanges. Between January 18 and January 19, net spot outflows increased from roughly $882,000 to $2.22 million — a jump of more than 150% in a single day. This behavior suggests accumulation, as tokens are being withdrawn from exchanges rather than positioned for near-term selling.
The alignment of ETF inflows and spot outflows indicates that demand is improving beneath the surface before any confirmed breakout occurs.
One Level Will Decide the Next Move
Momentum indicators are beginning to support the bullish case, though confirmation remains conditional. While price is testing lower lows, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to forming a higher low — a classic bullish divergence that often signals weakening selling pressure.
This divergence remains valid as long as HBAR holds above the $0.102 support level. A sustained break below that zone would invalidate both the divergence and the W structure, reopening downside risk.
On the upside, reclaiming $0.118 would mark a recovery of the 20-day EMA. The more critical shift occurs above $0.127, where the 50-day EMA resides. Clearing that level would turn prior resistance into support and significantly improve the probability of a move toward $0.135, followed by higher projected targets.
Final Thoughts
Hedera has spent weeks building a foundation while demand gradually improves. ETF inflows are strengthening, spot supply is tightening, and technical structures are aligning. Yet, the market’s verdict still hinges on one decisive level — the 50-day EMA.
Whether this rally attempt succeeds or fails will likely depend on how price reacts at that barrier.
Disclaimer:
This article is for informational purposes only and reflects personal analysis. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions. The author bears no responsibility for individual investment outcomes.
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