MARKET UPDATE – MAY 14, 2026 (AFTERNOON SESSION)
US MARKETS – FUTURES MIXED
S&P 500 Futures: ▼ -0.1%
Nasdaq 100 Futures: ▼ -0.2%
Dow Jones Futures: ▲ +0.05%
10-year Treasury: 4.51% | 2-year: 4.05%
WARSH CONFIRMED AS FED CHAIR
Senate vote: 51-45. Takes over tomorrow, May 15.
Rate cut odds: 97% probability of NO June cut
Hike odds by December: 42%
Powell stays as governor until 2028
TRUMP-XI SUMMIT – DAY 2
What's on table: Boeing 500+ jets, agriculture, trade truce extension
What's NOT: No semiconductor rollback, no Taiwan resolution
Jensen Huang on ground – no deal announced yet
ASIAN MARKETS
Nikkei 225: 63,241.62 ▲ +0.8%
Shanghai: 4,218.22 ▲ +0.1%
Hang Seng: 26,416.98 ▲ +0.3%
BITCOIN – HOLDING $81K
BTC: $81,200 ▲ +0.8%
ETH: $2,305 ▼ -0.3%
SOL: $95.40 ▼ -0.5%
BNB: $678 ▲ +1.2%
Market cap: $2.72T | Fear & Greed: 45
BTC touched $82K twice this week – rejected both times
200-day MA: $82,228 – technical ceiling
OIL – HOLDING ABOVE $100
WTI: $101.20 ▼ -0.45%
Brent: $106.70 ▼ -0.60%
Iran ceasefire on "massive life support" – Trump called proposal "piece of garbage"
GOLD & DOLLAR
Gold: $4,695 ▼ -0.2%
DXY: 98.35 ▲ +0.05%
THE BOTTOM LINE
Four forces driving markets: Warsh confirmed (rate cuts priced out, hike odds rising), Trump-Xi summit (Boeing deal watch, no chip deal), Iran ceasefire cracking (oil above $100), tech under pressure (semis -3%). Base case: trade truce extended, Boeing order, oil elevated, Fed on hold. No news is bullish – but macro headwinds building.
👇 Which trade – Boeing, oil, or waiting for BTC breakout above $82K?
$BTC $BZ $CL
#MarketUpdate #Warsh #TrumpXiSummit #OilPrice