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Hours after reclaiming the $79,000 threshold, bitcoin tumbled well below $77,000 as the earlier enthusiasm sparked by reports that Iran had submitted a peace plan to end the Middle East war permanently dissipated. In fact, Bitstamp data show that bitcoin experienced two sharp price drops on April 27, first shortly after it tapped an intraday high of $79,490 around midnight.
After appearing to consolidate below $77,800, the top cryptocurrency briefly topped $78,000 before a sell-off saw it shed approximately $1,500 in under one hour to reach a session low of $76,567. Subsequent attempts to reverse the losses stalled shortly after it breezed past $77,000; at the time of writing, the cryptocurrency traded around $76,700.
With this price action, bitcoin’s 24-hour losses mounted, reaching 1.7%, which helped drag down its market capitalization from around $1.56 trillion observed in the early morning session to $1.54 trillion at 12:45 p.m. EDT.
While bitcoin has spent much of the last few weeks in a tight correlation with global risk assets, Monday’s slide marked a notable decoupling. The cryptocurrency’s decline appeared little more aggressive than the action in European and U.S. equities, which remained largely range-bound and flat.
This downward pressure on the top cryptocurrency stood in stark contrast to the bullish momentum in the Asia-Pacific region. Leading the charge, South Korea’s Kospi index surged to a historic milestone, breaching the 6,600 level for the first time in its history. This regional rally was not entirely uniform, however; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index emerged as a minor outlier, paring gains to close with a marginal 0.2% retreat.
Asian stocks surged alongside bitcoin following reports that Iran submitted a proposal to the Trump administration. However, Western commentators noted that the offer avoids the critical nuclear issue. Although the administration is reportedly reviewing the document, analysts argue that because the conflict originated from disagreements over Iran’s nuclear enrichment, Washington is unlikely to accept the current terms.
Still, with Brent Crude oil prices climbing back above $100 per barrel, some observers suggest the administration may be incentivized to negotiate to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Restoring access to the strait could drive oil prices below $90, providing consumer relief and tempering global recession fears.
Meanwhile, bitcoin’s continued slide on Monday saw $110 million in long bets get liquidated, versus $59 million in shorts. Overall, the crypto economy saw $454 million in leveraged positions wiped out, with long bets accounting for $284 million of the total.
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Bitcoin regained its stride Monday, bouncing back above $80,000 after early morning jitters tied to Middle East tensions. Though the top cryptocurrency dipped to a session low of $78,203 around 6:30 a.m. EDT, it surged past $80,500 by midmorning, effectively erasing its losses and reclaiming momentum from Sunday night’s rally.
Prior to that intraday dip, bitcoin had surged to a commanding $80,617, marking a fresh three-month peak. This aggressive rally pushed the asset’s total market capitalization north of the $1.6 trillion milestone—a psychological breakthrough that solidified the narrative that the industry has finally emerged from its latest “ crypto winter.”
While several factors fueled the rise, some analysts tied the initial surge to reports that the U.S. Navy would escort shipping vessels stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. The risky move by the U.S. followed a weekend of sharp rhetoric between Washington and Tehran; the latter seized control of the vital shipping channel shortly after hostilities began.
While the blockade increased pressure on Iran, its refusal to give in to U.S. demands to reopen the strait to commercial ships has caused oil prices and inflation to rise. With the war increasingly unpopular at home, the Trump administration—eager to placate voters ahead of the midterm elections—began deploying warships to flashpoints to launch the escorts. U.S. officials revealed Monday that two American-flagged vessels had already passed through without incident.
However, reports of attacks on shipping vessels and claims by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that it repelled advancing U.S. Navy ships rattled markets. Although U.S. Central Command dismissed the Iranian version of events, the situation has clearly escalated. A fire at the Fujairah oil terminal and claims by the United Arab Emirates that it intercepted missiles launched from Iran underscored the growing danger.
For shipping companies, the latest episode suggests that unless the two belligerents reach a permanent peace agreement, normal transit through the channel will not resume. As a resolution stalls, economists say the prospects of a global recession are growing.
Following the skirmishes, oil prices rose, with Brent crude briefly reaching $115 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate jumping 3.3% to $105 per barrel. On Wall Street, the main indices were marginally lower at the time of writing after taking heavy losses earlier in the day. Bitcoin, conversely, reversed its early morning losses to bring its 24-hour gains back above 2%.
The price action saw nearly $270 million in leveraged bitcoin positions wiped out, with liquidated shorts accounting for close to $212 million. Overall, volatility across the cryptocurrency market resulted in $384 million in short bets and $170 million in long positions being liquidated.
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The text released Friday blocks crypto firms from offering stablecoin yield offerings that look like bank deposits, but "bona fide" transactions are allowed.
Coming to an agreement means there's likely nothing in the way of a Senate Banking Committee hearing (known as a markup) that could finally advance the legislation another key step in its progress through the Senate, though there are a number of other negotiation points that haven't been publicly resolved.
Mark it up," Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong wrote in a posting on social media site X. His company had been at the center of the talks and potentially had the most to lose from restrictions on stablecoin rewards.
Coinbase's chief legal officer, Paul Grewal, said in a separate post that this language "preserves activity-based rewards tied to real participation on crypto platforms and networks, which is what the bank lobby said they wanted," adding that "we’re focused on getting a bill done and are satisifed that this language should not be the basis of any objection."
In its legalese, the new text reads, "No covered party shall, directly or indirectly, pay any form of interest on yield (whether in cash, tokens, or other consideration) to a restricted recipient — (A) solely in connection with the holding of such restricted recipient's payment stablecoins; or (B) on a payment stablecoin balance in a manner that is economically or functionally equivalent to the payment of interest or yield on an interest-bearing bank deposit."
This restriction does not apply to incentives "based on bona fide activities or bona fide transactions" that are different from yield generated by interest-bearing bank deposits, the text said, maintaining an approach to rewards that's similar to what financial firms offer on credit card activity. The restriction does apply to loyalty programs or similar efforts.
One individual at a crypto company said this would require digital asset firms to restructure how they offer yield, moving from a "buy and hold" system to "buy and use" to meet the transaction caveats in the text.
It's difficult to say how exactly this might work, the person said, pointing to the rulemaking provisions in the text, which direct the Treasury Department and Commodity Futures Trading Commission to launch a rulemaking within a year of the bill becoming law that lays out more clearly how and when crypto firms can offer yield.
The way the rulemaking provision is worded could give regulators latitude in how they define what crypto companies can do with yield products, said Corey Frayer, director of investor protection at the Consumer Federation of America. He said the wording of the rulemaking section could allow crypto firms to conduct the activities and then pay the returns back to customers. The wording in the section allows regulators to consider balance, duration and tenure as a factor in rewards calculation. Other factors that would be considered include the definition of the activity and whether some sort of incentive program is used.
Senators Alsobrooks and Tillis have been negotiating details of the text for the last few months, after a Senate Banking Committee markup on the overall Clarity Act was postponed last-minute in January. Since then, bank lobbyists and crypto insiders have been weighing in on the compromise effort, sometimes in session hosted by the White House.
The text also includes anti-evasion language.
In March, the lawmakers had said they'd struck an agreement that blocked crypto firms from offering yield that looked like deposit interest but did allow them to structure rewards programs that didn't rival banks' core products.
In a statement, Digital Chamber CEO Cody Carbone said the trade association "welcomes the public release of stablecoin yield language as an important step toward resolving one of the final issues standing between the Committee and a markup. We are encouraged to see this process moving forward and will continue advocating for the power of rewards to drive consumer utility, competition, and innovation across the digital asset ecosystem.
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A new report from Bitget and Polymarket reveals that prediction markets are evolving into a $240 billion industry driven by retail users who are trading more frequently on everything from crypto to politics.
The data suggest growth is being driven by frequency rather than trade size. More than 82% of users traded less than $10,000 during the quarter, a sign the market remains dominated by retail participants. Instead of placing large, infrequent bets, users are engaging in smaller trades more regularly.
Prediction markets are becoming less about capital and more about consistent, repeated actions,” said Alvin Kan, Bitget Wallet's chief operating officer. “What we're seeing is a behavioral shift: The market is scaling with more taps per day, not bigger trades.”
Crypto remains the primary entry point for new users, accounting for nearly 40% of early activity. Its continuous trading and familiar price movements make it a natural starting place. But as users become more active, participation shifts toward markets tied to real-world events.
The report frames this evolution as a structural change. Prediction markets are no longer driven solely by spikes around major occurrences like elections. Instead, they are becoming continuous systems where users return regularly to track and respond to changing probabilities.
As prediction markets evolve into core financial infrastructure, distribution becomes as important as the underlying market itself,” said Elden Mirzoian, director of growth and partnerships at Polymarket. “We're seeing a shift from episodic trading to more continuous engagement.”
That shift is also changing how these markets are used. Prices increasingly reflect real-time expectations around macroeconomic trends, politics and culture, and are beginning to appear alongside traditional data sources in media and financial analysis.
Growth has accelerated quickly. Monthly trading volume has climbed from about $1.2 billion in 2025 to more than $20 billion in early 2026, while active wallets have more than tripled in six months. Industry projections cited in the report estimate the market could reach $240 billion in volume this year, with a longer-term path toward $1 trillion.
As participation increases, the focus is moving toward access and usability. Wallets are emerging as key entry points, helping users discover markets and interact with them in real time.
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The gains came after Apple (AAPL) joined peers with an earnings report that improved sentiment across the industry. The companies, which include Google parent Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META) and Amazon (AMZN), all reported double-digit revenue growth earlier this week.
The earnings reports helped risk assets rise as renewed confidence in the AI growth story pulled investors back into equities and crypto, though the bounce so far reflects relief buying rather than conviction that a new rally has begun.
In a note shared with CoinDesk, crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin said the market is dealing with “short-term pressure with still-mixed structural factors,” including reduced rate-cut hopes, ETF outflows and higher geopolitical risk.
Crypto prices held this week even as oil surged and spot bitcoin ETFs saw more than $400 million of outflows as April came to a close.
Oil remains a key factor. Higher crude prices from the Iran conflict and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could feed inflation, making central banks less willing to cut interest rates. That can weigh on crypto and other risk assets by making cash and bonds more attractive.
The Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.50% to 3.75% this week, though the four dissenting voices are the most since 1992. Mercado Bitcoin said the decision and the absence of clear rate-cut signals led markets to reprice policy expectations.
“In the short term, the market should remain volatile and highly reactive to economic data,” the company's head of research, Rony Szuster, said. “In the medium term, the structure remains dependent on the stabilization of institutional flows and the path of global monetary policy.”
Jerome Powell’s chairmanship at the Fed ends on May 15, and Kevin Warsh is expected to chair the June FOMC meeting,which could induce volatility given Warsh’s favor for tightening monetary policy.
The key test remains at $80,000. A break could draw new buyers, while a failed move may trigger selling if leveraged longs unwind. Stay alert!
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Anchorage seeks to expand its issuance platform through M0, and opens the door to a broad range of firms looking to launch U.S.-regulated stablecoins.
M0 (pronounced “M Zero”), is a flexible protocol that allows global institutions to mint fully configurable stablecoins, which also works with the likes of Stripe, Moonpay and MetaMask.
It might not sound like the sexiest topic, but we have been building modular infrastructure for stablecoins for three years now,” said M0 CEO Luca Prosperi, in an interview. “This means we are supporting anyone who wants to launch and manage their own stablecoin, whether it is a crypto project, protocol, fintech, payment provider, exchange and many more.”By partnering with M0, we’re extending our issuance platform to support that growth, while maintaining the regulatory, operational, and security standards our partners rely on,” said Anchorage CEO Nathan McCauley, in a statement.
The arrival of the GENIUS Act means stablecoins in the U.S. are becoming a regulated instrument. M0 has already partnered with several regulated players that are using the firm’s contracts, but with Anchorage the regulation-focused relationship is “a bit deeper,” Prosperi added.
By partnering with M0, we’re extending our issuance platform to support that growth, while maintaining the regulatory, operational, and security standards our partners rely on,” said Anchorage CEO Nathan McCauley, in a statement.
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Backed by 20VC, Picus Capital and Coinbase Ventures; XO lets users create and profit from their own prediction markets, and plans to rollout a new vault product to democratize market making.
Today’s major platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket act more like Netflix,” Habbabeh told CoinDesk in an interview. “They decide what markets exist. We’ve flipped that model entirely. On XO, users create the markets themselves.”
The distinction is critical. While incumbents rely on internal teams to curate and list prediction markets, XO allows individuals or companies to spin up their own markets, set parameters and fees, and let others trade on them. The result, Habbabeh said, is a broader, and often more creative, set of opportunities.
We believe the future of prediction markets is user-generated. The best markets aren’t decided by a platform, they emerge from the community.”
The model appears to be gaining traction. Since starting its mainnet beta in mid-November, XO has generated more than $150 million in trading volume, attracted over 30,000 users and seen more than 600 user-created markets. An earlier pilot began in April 2025 with a testnet rollout.
The metrics look strong because the incentives are aligned,” Habbabeh said. “If you create a compelling market, people trade on it. If you don’t, it dies naturally.”
That “natural selection” dynamic may be a double-edged sword. Even Habbabeh points out that competing user-generated platforms like Nine Lives and Warm Protocol struggled to convert the concept into meaningful liquidity, resulting in inactive markets or minimal trading activity.
It is unlikely that Polymarket or Kalshi will offer user-generated markets, according to Habbabeh, because they would need to find market makers willing to provide liquidity for thousands of different events and would have to alter their infrastructure. Their current models are also extremely profitable, he added.
Prediction markets are gaining traction beyond their niche origins, drawing increased interest from retail traders and institutional participants alike as a new venue for pricing uncertainty. Advances in digital-asset infrastructure have lowered barriers to entry, while a series of high-profile political and economic events has underscored the limitations of traditional forecasting tools.
The result is a growing number of platforms where contracts tied to real-world outcomes are traded with increasing liquidity, positioning prediction markets as an emerging, and lightly regulated, complement to conventional financial markets.
Total industry volume jumped roughly fourfold to more than $60 billion in 2025, up from about $15 billion–$16 billion the year before, with platforms like Polymarket driving much of that growth.
On Polymarket specifically, monthly trading exploded from just $54 million at the start of 2024 to over $2.6 billion the following November, helping push cumulative volume past $9 billion in a single year
For now, the focus remains on growth and product expansion.
As XO builds out its ecosystem, Habbabeh is confident the user-generated model will continue to differentiate it.
The internet showed us that the best content doesn’t come from centralized studios, it comes from users,” he said. “We think prediction markets will follow the same path.”
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Speaking at Bitcoin Las Vegas 2026, the American Bitcoin co-founder declared the last six months a turning point.
What bitcoin has done in the last six months relative to the previous three years is transformational," said Trump. "We are in the greatest period I've ever seen."
Trump pointed to major banks now offering bitcoin-backed mortgages and custody services as evidence of a Wall Street reversal. "People are not selling it. People are holding it. Bitcoin is becoming sticky," Trump said, adding that limited supply and growing demand from both institutions and sovereign governments are compressing the market structurally.
Moderator Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst, framed the shift through the lens of the ETF market, noting that bitcoin ETFs have been among the most successful product launches in the instrument's history, democratizing access for everyday investors in a way previously reserved for institutions.
I'll ride out the volatility," said Trump. "We'll see who wins in a 10-year period of time."
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After research showed a small minority moves prices, new data suggests an even smaller group captures roughly half of all gains
Across Polymarket’s politics markets between December 2025 and February 2026, just 0.55% of profitable maker wallets captured 50% of gains, the report finds, while 0.26% of winning taker wallets accounted for nearly the same share. In dollar terms, roughly $8 million of about $16 million in profits accrued to each of those tiny cohorts.
The data sharpens a picture already forming in academic work: a London Business School and Yale paper, previously analyzed by CoinDesk, found that about 3% of Polymarket traders drive most price discovery.
A small minority moves the prices. A smaller minority keeps the money.
The contrast underscores a key point: concentration does not necessarily imply wrongdoing. Some traders are simply more sophisticated, better capitalized, or faster to act on information. But the report argues that the scale of the imbalance suggests a structural divide between a small group operating with significant advantages and the broader base of participants.
The participants capturing a disproportionate share of profits are operating in a different league entirely,” the report said, pointing to capital depth, infrastructure, and execution strategies that are out of reach for most users.
Solidus' study also flags signs of wash trading, with roughly 15% of volume in some markets showing patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions.
Because outcome tokens in a binary prediction market sum to roughly $1.00, a trader could buy YES on both Trump and Harris inside the same time window, register volume on each leg, and finish economically delta-neutral.
Solidus says this trade has no equivalent in traditional finance.
Some of that volume may be incentive farming rather than pure manipulation. It's widely speculated that Polymarket's upcoming $POLY airdrop will factor in trading volume as a metric to allocate tokens.
Solidus is not a neutral observer. The firm sells HALO, the surveillance platform whose output the report relies on, and recently signed a deal to deploy that platform across more than 4,000 markets on Kalshi, Polymarket's largest U.S.-regulated competitor.
The data is onchain and verifiable. The framing — that prediction markets need surveillance infrastructure, preferably Solidus's — is part of the pitch.
That doesn't change the underlying numbers. It does suggest reading them with a hand on the wallet.
If earlier research showed that a small minority moves these markets, the latest data suggests an even starker conclusion: an even smaller group consistently wins them.
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The firm added 114 BTC to its corporate treasury, for a total of 8,997 BTC, and said it plans to issue regular third-party reports.
The owner of Square and Cash App said the dashboard is a point-in-time snapshot and not a full audit of solvency, though it plans to publish regular third-party reports.
The snapshot reflects balances as of March 2026 and is backed by third-party audit checks and cryptographic signatures that users can verify independently.
The company published wallet addresses and signed messages onchain, allowing anyone to confirm ownership without access to private keys.
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This hiring roundup was written in conjunction with crypto-native executive search firm Intersection Growth Partners.
It combines Intersection’s monthly newsletter, which includes unreported executive hires, and The Block’s monthly hiring update.
Crypto hiring remained active through November, with exchanges, payments firms, and infra teams adding senior operators across product, legal, and BD. Venture firms continued to promote from within, while Bitcoin-native projects and ZK ecosystems expanded leadership teams ahead of 2026 roadmaps. Talent flowed in from traditional finance and big tech, particularly in compliance, partnerships, and brand management.
Infrastructure, security, and payments companies saw the largest concentration of new roles. Several networks made strategic marketing and growth hires, while stablecoin and tokenization initiatives pulled in senior talent from banks and fintech.
Anchorage: David Lawant joined as Head of Research. He was previously Head of Research at FalconX.
Bitget: Ignacio Aguirre Franco was appointed Chief Marketing Officer.
BitMine Immersion Technologies: Chi Tsang was appointed Chief Executive Officer and joined the board.
BNB Chain: Nina Rong joined as Executive Director of Growth.
Circle: Wyatt Robinson joined as Chief Counsel, Payments. He was previously Senior Corporate Counsel at Microsoft. Erika
Peterson joined as VP, Global Ecosystem. She was previously MD, Corporate Strategy at BlackRock.
Coinbase: Shannon Kurtas joined as Head of Coinbase Advanced. He was previously VP, Product at Kraken. Liz Martin joined as VP, Product for Derivatives and Markets. She was previously a Partner at Goldman Sachs. Gareth Kay joined as VP, Brand. He was previously a Partner at The Intangibles. Joe Staples joined as VP, Creative. He was previously a Partner at Mother.
Deel: Thierry Edde was promoted to Head of Crypto.
FalconX: Eesa Ahmad joined as Senior Executive, Institutional Sales. He was previously Senior Director of Institutional Sales at Crypto.com.
Huma Finance: Jessica Cao was appointed APAC CEO. She previously held senior roles at Ant International, BNP Paribas, Citi and Standard Chartered.
MoonPay: Zach Kwartler joined as Head of Stablecoins. He was previously Product Lead, Platform at Paxos.
Morpho: Tarik Bellamine joined as Head of Engineering. He was previously a Senior Engineering Manager at Uniswap Labs.
OpenFX: Rushil Gambhir joined as Product Lead, Payments and New Markets. He was previously VP, Product Management at Mastercard Move.
TeraHash: Hunter Rogers joined as Co-Founder. He previously served as Senior Ecosystem Development and Investment Lead at TRON DAO.
Variant: Caleb Shack joined as Investment Partner. He was previously Head of Ecosystem at Arch Network.
Visa: Matt Austin joined as Senior Director, Business Development, Visa Crypto. He was previously Director of Strategic Initiatives at Ripple.
Wintermute: David Micley joined as Head of US BD. Dmitry Kotov joined as Lead US Counsel. H. Branch Johnson joined as Managing Director, BD. Matthew Pizzo joined as Chief Compliance Officer.
Zcash Foundation: Pili Guerra was promoted to Head of Engineering. Danika Delano was promoted to Chief Operating Officer.
Zerohash: Aaron Karczmer and Danny Rosenthal joined the board. Karczmer is CEO of K2 Integrity. Rosenthal is Founder and CEO of Nutshell Labs.
Stripe: Ernie Tedeschi joined as Chief Economist.
Tether: Bloomberg reported that Vincent Domien and Mathew O’Neill will join to support the firm’s expansion of gold-backed reserves.
AlphaTON Capital: William De’Ath was appointed Chief Partnership Officer.
Blockchain.com: Lane Kasselman was promoted from President to Co-CEO and President.
a16z crypto: Guy Wuollet was promoted from Investment Partner to General Partner.
QuickNode: Jason Hunt was promoted from Chief Strategy Officer to Chief Revenue Officer.
CFTC: Michael Selig was nominated to serve as Chairman and Commissioner. He is Chief Counsel of the Crypto Task Force and Senior Advisor to the SEC Chairman.
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The new guidance says that “staff would not object if a broker-dealer were to apply a 2% haircut on proprietary positions.”
In a statement on Thursday responding to the guidance, Commissioner Hester Peirce said the use of stablecoins could allow brokers to do more.
The new FAQ marks the SEC’s latest move in being more friendly to the digital asset industry.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission introduced new guidance allowing broker-dealers to apply a "2% haircut" to proprietary positions in certain stablecoins — a move that some crypto stakeholders say helps bring digital assets closer to traditional finance.
In guidance issued on Thursday by the SEC's Division of Trading and Markets, the staff addressed a customer protection rule requiring broker-dealers to safeguard customers' assets and maintain a cushion for those assets. The new guidance says that "staff would not object if a broker-dealer were to apply a 2% haircut on proprietary positions." A haircut is typically a percentage applied to an asset when it is being used as collateral.
In a statement responding to the guidance, SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce said the use of stablecoins could allow brokers to do more.
Stablecoins are essential to transacting on blockchain rails," she said. "Using stablecoins will make it feasible for broker-dealers to engage in a broader range of business activities relating to tokenized securities and other crypto assets."
The new FAQ marks the SEC's latest move in being more friendly to the digital asset industry. Over the past year, the SEC has created a crypto task force covering topics ranging from custody to tokenization, embarked on "Project Crypto" to modernize its rules around crypto, and has plans to propose an innovation exemption to integrate tokenization into the capital markets.
More broadly, federal agencies are also working to implement a new law, called GENIUS, that passed last year, creating a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins.
Firms have to apply "haircuts" to assets to reflect risk, so more volatile assets get bigger haircuts. Some brokers were imposing an 100% haircut on stablecoins, according to Tonya Evans, making holding stablecoins more unaffordable. Evans is a fintech strategist and board member of the Digital Currency Group.
"A 2% haircut changes that calculus entirely by putting payment stablecoins on par with money market funds, which hold similar underlying assets like U.S. Treasuries, cash, and short-term government securities," Evans wrote in a Forbes article.
Former Avalanche COO Luigi D'Onorio DeMeo said the new SEC guidance would mean that stablecoins could be treated like money-market funds. The move "removes a major friction point," and also means stablecoins can become a larger part of traditional finance.
Lowers the barrier for deeper integration of stablecoins into traditional finance rails = better liquidity, more efficient settlement, and broader institutional on-ramp," he said in a post on X.
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