Bitcoin is breaking out of the descending channel! But this breakout is most likely going to be a bull trap (false breakout). Why? Trading Bitcoin is not easy, and whales want you to buy it right now so they can force you to sell later in Q4 2026. In the short term, Bitcoin can hit 79k - 80k in the following weeks, but it's the best opportunity to sell/short.

Bear market progress: 61 / 100 (61%). I think Bitcoin could find its bottom in September/October 2026.

Why is this short-term uptrend a trap? From an Elliott Wave perspective, a corrective major wave usually has an ABC pattern (3-wave structure). Because Bitcoin broke out of the descending channel, we can celebrate that wave A has been formed. That means we are in wave B, and soon Bitcoin will finish this wave and start a last wave C. Wave C is usually characterized by huge capitulation of major investors and retail traders, we should see news that some of the major players got liquidated / hacked. We had this news in the previous bear market about the collapse of the FTX exchange. Currently we don't have such news. People are pretty optimistic, but I am not at this point - I am very cautious.

My main focus is on 44k because this level is a very strong support from a technical point of view. Specifically, it's the point of control in the volume profile of the previous price action on the weekly chart. On the chart you can see my prediction of how the bear market and wave C may look.

It's too early compared to the previous Bitcoin cycles to say that this was the ultimate bottom. I see it as a trap from whales and banks. Banks love Bitcoin and crypto.

Write a comment with your altcoin + hit the like button, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! I am very transparent with my trades. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!

16 hours ago

Trade active

I am currently long in the short term. As you can see on the chart. Soon taking profit for a quick trade.