$BTC P&L ratio just hit -0.35 — lowest in 43 months. Same level as December 2022 right after FTX collapsed.
This level is historically rare: 2015, 2019, and now. Every single time it dropped this low, a rally followed.
The setup:
1. $BTC down 50% from October peak
2. Strategy's $MSTR breaking below $75 accelerated the flush
3. Bitwise CIO calls it a leverage flush, not a structural warning
The number that matters: $BTC is trading just 16% above realized price. Historically, that level has preceded 41% returns over the next six months.
No one's calling the bottom. But waiting for it to announce itself has never worked either.
Three cycles. Same signal. Same outcome.
What makes this one different?
This level is historically rare: 2015, 2019, and now. Every single time it dropped this low, a rally followed.
The setup:
1. $BTC down 50% from October peak
2. Strategy's $MSTR breaking below $75 accelerated the flush
3. Bitwise CIO calls it a leverage flush, not a structural warning
The number that matters: $BTC is trading just 16% above realized price. Historically, that level has preceded 41% returns over the next six months.
No one's calling the bottom. But waiting for it to announce itself has never worked either.
Three cycles. Same signal. Same outcome.
What makes this one different?