bitcoin

Not much analysis is needed to address today's topic. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) will close tomorrow not only the year (2025) but also the month (December). This is a critical closing as the 1M (monthly) candle is currently red and if it closes this way (i.e. roughly below $90300), BTC will complete three straight red months.
Why this s important? Because during its 2023 - 2025 Bull Cycle, it never had three bearish 1M candles in a row and that could be a definitive confirmation that the new Bear Cycle is already underway.
In fact it would be almost a perfect match with the first 3 months of the previous Bear Cycle, which were also 3 straight red ones (November 2021 - January 2022), also supported by the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). A lifeline of encouragement would be however that, following those first 3 red candles of the previous Bear Cycle, the market found support on the 1W MA100 and rebounded the next two months (but of course only to drop more aggressively in the later stages).
It has to be noted also at this point that 3 straight red months has historically been a strong feature of Bear Cycle activity. In fact only twice Bitcoin displayed 3 straight red months during Bull Cycles: April - June 2021 and July - September 2019.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea!
$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Em outubro de 2025, o Bitcoin alcançou um novo recorde histórico de US$ 125.000, marcando o ponto mais alto desde o ciclo de 2021. Naquele momento, o mercado celebrava os fluxos massivos para ETFs spot, o crescente apetite institucional e uma narrativa macro favorável a ativos escassos.
No entanto, a partir de novembro, o mercado passou por uma reviravolta. Em poucos meses, o BTC corrigiu para a faixa de US$ 90.000, reacendendo a cautela entre investidores e levantando uma nova pergunta: o Bitcoin está apenas respirando antes de buscar os US$ 100 mil novamente, ou estamos diante de uma fase mais longa de consolidação?
O que causou a queda após o pico?
A correção do Bitcoin foi impulsionada por uma combinação de fatores:
Realização institucional: após meses de compras, alguns grandes fundos optaram por realizar parte dos lucros.Indicadores técnicos esticados: RSI e funding estavam em níveis extremos em outubro, sugerindo sobrecompra.Liquidações alavancadas: traders com posições exageradas foram forçados a sair, acelerando a queda.Sentimento global de risco: ruídos sobre juros, geopolitica e regulações esfriaram o apetite por cripto.
Apesar disso, o contexto estrutural segue robusto, com alta participação institucional, adoção global crescente e escassez cada vez maior de oferta circulante.
O que permanece como base de sustentação
Mesmo após a queda, alguns pilares da alta seguem ativos:
ETFs de Bitcoin: os fluxos diminuíram, mas seguem positivos. O interesse institucional não sumiu.Oferta reduzida: o volume de BTC em exchanges continua baixo, com hodlers mantendo suas posições.Narrativa macro: com bancos centrais sinalizando flexibilização monetária em 2026, ativos escassos como o BTC tendem a voltar ao radar.
Ademais, a desvalorização de moedas emergentes e a procura por reserva de valor digital seguem aquecidas, especialmente na América Latina.
US$ 100 mil novamente ou mais queda pela frente?
Atualmente, o Bitcoin se encontra em uma zona de transição. De um lado, temos um suporte técnico relevante na casa dos US$ 85.000 a US$ 88.000. Se esse patamar for respeitado, o preço pode voltar a testar a resistência em US$ 100.000, agora um alvo psicológico importante.

Por outro lado, se houver perda de suporte e aumento na pressão vendedora, o BTC pode testar zonas mais baixas, como US$ 78.000 ou mesmo US$ 72.000, onde existe histórico de negociação intensa.
Comportamento do investidor: paciência é estratégia
Para quem investe no longo prazo, o momento pede mais paciência do que reação. Manter parte das posições e reservar liquidez para oportunidades pode ser mais inteligente do que tentar prever o fundo exato.
Já para os traders, o ideal é acompanhar:
Funding rates e volume em tempo realNíveis de liquidação em derivativosMovimentação de carteiras institucionais e grandes baleias
Em ambas as estratégias, gestão de risco é essencial. Momentos de transição são os mais perigosos para quem opera com emoção.
O que olhar para 2026
Mesmo com a pressão atual, o Bitcoin encerra 2025 com uma valorização significativa em relação ao ano anterior. O rally até US$ 125.000 mostrou que o ativo segue relevante, e muitos analistas apontam que essa fase de correção pode servir como base para uma nova onda de alta em 2026.
Fatores que podem destravar novos avanços:
Nova aceleração dos ETFs spotCortes de juros mais agressivos nos EUACrescimento da demanda por cripto em países emergentesAvanço da integração entre cripto e mercado tradicional
Bitcoin segue imprevisível, mas cada vez mais maduro
A correção do BTC não invalida sua narrativa de longo prazo. O ativo segue se consolidando como reserva digital, instrumento de proteção e ativo especulativo ao mesmo tempo. Entender essa dualidade é chave para navegar os próximos meses com mais clareza.
O caminho até os próximos recordes pode ser turbulento, mas a base do mercado hoje é mais sólida do que em qualquer ciclo anterior. O Bitcoin talvez ainda demore para retomar os US$ 125.000, mas o foco agora é: ele segue construindo esse caminho.
E você, acredita que o BTC volta a testar os US$ 100 mil em breve?
#bitcoin #BTC #criptomoedas #BTCVSGOLD #2026
---
Imagem gerada no Gemini

As 2025 closes, Bitcoin sits at one of those moments that feels bigger than a normal range. Price action has compressed into a tight band, liquidity is present but cautious, and the tug-of-war between institutional accumulation and macro hesitation is becoming hard to ignore. Markets aren’t just drifting — they are quietly coiling.

Where Bitcoin Stands Now
Bitcoin is trading near $88,300, holding a well-defined band between $86,000 support and $90,000 resistance. Every attempt to push into the top of that range has met disciplined selling, while dips still find buyers willing to step in.
This tight consolidation is happening despite the usual year-end noise — tax positioning, portfolio rebalancing, and capital shifts that normally inject more volatility. Instead of breaking down under that pressure, Bitcoin has held its ground, suggesting the market is absorbing stress rather than folding.
Sentiment, however, tells another story. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped into “Extreme Fear” showing how defensive traders and investors remain, even as price refuses to give up key levels. Historically, that gap between fearful sentiment and resilient price has often come before sharp, decisive moves.
The Forces Quietly Shaping Bitcoin’s Next Move
Institutional Flows Returning
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted substantial net inflows into the final stretch of December, reversing a week-long patch of outflows. In total, these funds now hold over 6% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, quietly reducing the liquid float and reinforcing a slow, persistent accumulation trend.
ETF demand rarely shows up as an instant vertical candle. Instead, it tightens supply in the background. The impact usually becomes obvious only when fresh spot demand arrives and finds less BTC available than expected.
Long-Term Holders Shift From Selling to Accumulating
After months of selling into strength, long-term holders have flipped back to net accumulation, moving tens of thousands of BTC into long-term storage . Historically, that kind of pivot:
Takes a layer of downside pressure off the marketSignals rising conviction that future prices will justify holding rather than distributing
Whale Activity: Quietly Biased to the Upside
Large-wallet and top-trader data shows positioning that leans slightly long. It is not euphoric and not wildly overleveraged, but it is constructive.
This mix — cautious leverage plus steady buying — tends to:
Lower the odds of sudden liquidation cascades on routine pullbacksPoint to a market that is positioning for opportunity, not bracing for collapse
Technical Picture: Compression Before Expansion
Bitcoin’s chart is broadcasting balance , but in a high-beta asset like this, balance rarely lasts for long.
Key levels traders are watching:

Immediate resistance: $90,000Secondary resistance: $93,000Key supports: $86,000 → $84,000Deeper downside magnet (if broken): around $75,000Long-term mean-reversion area: near $62,000
Momentum indicators line up with the same idea of tension rather than exhaustion ,

RSI near 50 → neutral zone, neither stretched up nor heavily oversoldMACD flattening → momentum fading, but no clean bearish breakdown yetShort-term EMAs slightly bullish → as long as the range holds, buyers retain a mild short-term edge
Put together, this looks less like a market that is finished and more like a market that is storing energy. When ranges this tight finally break, they usually do not just “wiggle” — they move hard and often sustain the direction.
Market Psychology: Calm Surface, Tense Undercurrents
Across social channels and trading desks, the same line keeps popping up: Bitcoin is “acting like a stablecoin” 😅. That kind of boredom is often underestimated. It usually means traders are under-positioned for a big move, not relaxed because all risk has disappeared.
At the same time:
ETF absorption narrows liquid supplyStaking and yield programs give holders more reasons to lock coins for defined periods
That raises the cost of panic-selling into weakness and can amplify future upside once demand comes back in size.
Historically, environments built on:
Low realized volatilityA lot of waiting on the sidelinesGradual supply tightening
have been the backdrop for some of Bitcoin’s more aggressive volatility expansions.
🔍 Bottom Line: The Market is Setting the Stage, Not the Outcome
Bitcoin is not signaling obvious weakness here. It is signaling indecision under constraint — and when you combine indecision with tightening supply, the eventual resolution is often forceful or unforgiving.
If buyers can push through and hold above $90K–$93K, momentum traders, quant systems, and sidelined capital could rotate back in quickly.If sellers manage a clean break below $84K, especially alongside renewed macro stress, deeper retracement zones reopen and the market finally tests how strong long-term conviction really is.
In simple terms:
This is not a market to call candle-by-candle — it is a market to be positioned for.
2026 is unlikely to reward impatience or blind leverage. It is more likely to reward traders and investors who manage risk, know exactly where they are wrong, and respect how far compressed markets can move once they finally choose a direction.
#BTC #bitcoin $BTC