federalreserve

Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller left the White House with a clear sense that the top job at the U.S. central bank was slipping out of reach. He realized it almost immediately after his meeting with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office ended.
Waller had just completed what officials later described as an “intense conversation” regarding the position of Federal Reserve chair. The discussion focused heavily on the labor market, slowing hiring trends, and possible ways to support job creation. The meeting concluded just minutes before Trump addressed the nation on the state of the economy.
Present in the room were Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, and Deputy Chief of Staff Dan Scavino. Waller answered every question put to him, but he also sensed the underlying reality: the selection process remained wide open—and he was not at the frontrunner.

Signs the race is far from over
Further signals came from developments involving other potential candidates. Rick Rieder of BlackRock is scheduled to meet Trump at Mar-a-Lago during the final week of the year. Officials also confirmed that Michelle Bowman has been eliminated from consideration.
Meanwhile, Trump has already held interviews with other prominent contenders, including Kevin Hassett, currently favored on prediction markets, and former Fed governor Kevin Warsh. The sequence of meetings underscored just how competitive and unresolved the race remains.

Trump signals broader search and active dialogue
According to officials familiar with the meeting, Waller’s interview dispelled claims that Trump is seeking a Fed chair who would simply defer to him on interest rate decisions. They said the president explored a wide range of economic issues, not just monetary policy.
At the same time, Trump has been explicit about wanting a Fed chair who communicates with him. In a recent interview with The Wall Street Journal, he said the chair should “consult” with him. In a characteristically blunt remark, he added:

“I don’t think they should do exactly what we say. But I am a smart voice, and I should be listened to.”
A day later, Trump spoke warmly about Waller in the Oval Office when asked by reporters. “I think he’s terrific. He’s been there a long time, someone I’ve had a lot in common with,” the president said. Trump also noted that he personally nominated Waller to the Fed in 2019.
Despite the praise, the reality remained unchanged: Waller did not emerge as the leading candidate. Officials continued to stress that the interviews are part of a “highly organized process,” a phrase often signaling that a final decision is still distant.

A clear message on interest rates
Trump’s Wednesday evening address made his priorities even clearer.

“I will soon announce the name of our next Federal Reserve chair—someone who believes in significant interest rate cuts and in pushing mortgage payments even lower,” he said.
That statement alone underscored what Trump is seeking: a chair willing to pursue aggressive rate reductions.

Waller’s views on rates and labor market risks
Just hours before his Oval Office meeting, Waller spoke at the Yale University CEO Summit in New York. He said he believes interest rates could fall by 50 to 100 basis points, citing expectations of easing inflation and growing concerns about weak hiring.
Waller also reminded the audience that he dissented in July when the Fed voted to keep rates unchanged. That decision later appeared questionable when the Fed cut rates by a total of 75 basis points starting in September.
While officials did not disclose details of Waller’s private discussion with Trump, the broader context was clear. The November jobs report showed unemployment rising to 4.6%, up from 4.4% in September, while job growth nearly stalled. Employment has become a major political issue.
Trump returned to the topic during his economic speech, saying:

“More people are working today than at any time in American history. And 100% of the jobs created since I took office have been in the private sector.”
Since January, the private sector has added 687,000 jobs, while the government has eliminated 188,000 positions.

An unexpected moment at the end
The meeting concluded with a lighter moment that reportedly drew laughter from everyone in the room. Someone mentioned that Waller can deadlift 158 kilograms. Trump was said to be “genuinely impressed.” Not impressed enough to hand him the top job—but enough to earn admiration.
Waller left with a clear understanding: the search continues, and he does not expect the phone to ring.

#Fed , #TRUMP , #FederalReserve , #economy , #USPolitics

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,,The information and views presented in this article are intended solely for educational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice in any situation. The content of these pages should not be regarded as financial, investment, or any other form of advice. We caution that investing in cryptocurrencies can be risky and may lead to financial losses.“

According to Arthur Hayes, the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle no longer applies. Markets are no longer driven by halvings or historical patterns — instead, global liquidity has become the decisive force. Bitcoin’s future now depends primarily on how quickly new dollars are created and how discreetly they are distributed into the financial system.
In his latest essay, Hayes describes money printing as a sophisticated linguistic game played by politicians and central bankers. Rather than openly acknowledging inflation, they introduce new terminology and technical tools designed to keep markets alive while minimizing political fallout. Bitcoin no longer moves in a clean four-year rhythm but instead reacts to the speed and scale of balance sheet expansion.

Everything changed after 2008
Hayes traces this shift back to the period following the global financial crisis. After March 2009, risk assets escaped what he calls a deflationary trap. Equity indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, along with gold and Bitcoin, surged as central banks flooded the system with liquidity.
When returns are normalized to the 2009 baseline, Hayes argues that Bitcoin stands in a category of its own, far outperforming traditional assets.

Money printing has a new name — but works the same
Hayes walks through the mechanics of quantitative easing (QE) step by step. He explains that the Fed purchases bonds from primary dealers such as JP Morgan, funding those purchases by creating reserves out of thin air and crediting bank accounts.
Banks then use those funds to buy newly issued government bonds, since yields are higher than interest earned on reserves. The Treasury receives the cash into the Treasury General Account (TGA), from which spending follows. Asset prices rise first, while inflation in goods and services appears later as government spending reaches the real economy.
Hayes notes that money market funds currently hold roughly 40% of outstanding Treasury bills, while banks hold only about 10%. He points to firms like Vanguard as examples.
Through the Fed’s reverse repo facility, the central bank buys bills from funds and credits cash to their repo accounts, where it earns interest. If newly issued Treasuries offer higher yields than the reverse repo rate, funds purchase them and the money flows directly to the Treasury — which Hayes describes as indirect financing of government debt.
If bill yields do not exceed the reverse repo rate, funds lend in the repo market instead, secured by Treasuries. With the Fed funds upper bound near 3.75%, these funds can earn more through repo lending than by parking cash at the Fed.

Housing, debt, and the end of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle
According to Hayes, hedge funds routinely borrow via repo markets to purchase government bonds, with Bank of New York Mellon handling settlement. As a result, money created by the Fed ultimately finances longer-term government debt.
Hayes calls this structure “thinly disguised QE”, which continues to support both asset prices and government spending.
The Fed officially classifies the RMP program as technical rather than stimulative, allowing it to be expanded without a public vote as long as reserves remain “ample.” However, Hayes argues that the short end of the yield curve is effectively controlled by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent through issuance decisions.
Hayes also links RMP to the housing market. After tariff relief under the Trump administration, Bessent suggested that Treasury buybacks could calm markets. Hayes says Treasury bill issuance could finance buybacks of 10-year bonds, lowering yields and ultimately reducing mortgage rates.
This structure, Hayes argues, creates a permanent dependence on bill issuance and logically brings an end to Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. Data from CoinGlass show that Bitcoin fell 6% after the launch of RMP, while gold rose 2%.

Liquidity rules — again and again
“From the post–global financial crisis lows in March 2009, risk assets such as equities, gold, and Bitcoin were pulled out of the deflationary River Styx and delivered extraordinary returns,” Hayes wrote.
Whenever the Fed injects liquidity, the U.S. dollar weakens, prompting China, Europe, and Japan to respond with their own credit expansion to protect exporters.
Hayes expects the same dynamic to play out again. He forecasts a massive — potentially unprecedented — synchronized balance sheet expansion in 2026.

Bitcoin price outlook
In the near term, Hayes expects Bitcoin to trade between $80,000 and $100,000 as markets debate the true nature of RMP. Once the program is widely recognized as a form of quantitative easing, he anticipates a move to $124,000, followed shortly by a rally toward $200,000.
“Forty billion dollars per month sounds impressive, but as a percentage of total outstanding dollars, it is far smaller in 2025 than it was in 2009. Therefore, we cannot expect the same credit impulse at today’s asset prices. This is why the current belief that RMP < QE in terms of credit creation is incorrect,” Hayes concludes.

#ArthurHayes , #CryptoMarket , #liquidity , #FederalReserve , #bitcoin

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Notice:
,,The information and views presented in this article are intended solely for educational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice in any situation. The content of these pages should not be regarded as financial, investment, or any other form of advice. We caution that investing in cryptocurrencies can be risky and may lead to financial losses.“

A fresh rumor moved through financial media about a possible interview for the Federal Reserve chair role. The claim suggested that a current Federal Reserve governor had a strong interview with President Trump. The story spread fast but solid proof never appeared. Soon after officials dismissed the report and said there was no confirmed interview at all.

No official statement backed the claim. No primary source confirmed any meeting. Without clear evidence the story stayed in the rumor category. This led many observers to urge caution and remind readers to rely on verified information only.

Despite the noise markets stayed steady. Major digital assets showed no sudden moves linked to the rumor. Prices followed existing trends instead of reacting to the headline. This reaction or lack of it shows how traders now treat unconfirmed political stories. Without clear policy signals markets often ignore them.

Experts pointed out that leadership talk inside the Federal Reserve rarely moves crypto prices by itself. History supports this view. Past changes or rumors around central bank leadership had limited direct effect on major digital assets. Traders tend to wait for real policy shifts not speculation.

Market analysts stressed the importance of facts in fast moving environments. Rumors can spread quickly and create confusion. Still price action often tells the real story. In this case price action showed calm not fear. That suggested the market did not see the rumor as meaningful.

Ethereum and Bitcoin stayed within their recent ranges. There was no spike in volume tied to the news. This further supported the idea that traders ignored the claim. Instead they focused on broader forces like adoption trends regulation clarity and global liquidity.

Research groups echoed this view. They noted that long term value depends on real changes not headlines. Technology growth network use and actual policy decisions matter more than talk. Short term noise fades quickly when it lacks proof.

The story also highlighted a bigger issue. In the age of fast news false or unclear reports can travel far before being checked. This makes it even more important for readers to pause and verify sources. Officials and analysts alike warned against reacting too quickly.

In this case the denial came before any damage was done. Markets stayed calm. Confidence in existing trends remained intact. This outcome showed maturity in how traders handle political rumors today.

The key takeaway is simple. Unverified claims rarely move serious markets for long. Without evidence or policy impact they remain background noise. Investors who focus on data and confirmed developments tend to avoid emotional moves.

For now nothing has changed. There is no confirmed interview. There is no new policy signal. And there is no reason for markets to react. The episode serves as a reminder that clarity matters and patience often pays off.
#FederalReserve #CryptoNewss #cryptooinsigts #TRUMP