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China–India Commercial Relations in 2025: A Delicate Balance of Trade, Dependence and Opportunity
Introduction
China and India, two of the world’s most populous and fastest-growing economies, share a complex trade relationship. While geopolitical tensions and border disputes often dominate headlines, the commercial link between them remains substantial — albeit heavily tilted. In 2025, this relationship presents both opportunities and challenges: trade volumes are large, but imbalances and strategic dependencies persist.

Bilateral Trade: Scale and Imbalance

In fiscal year 2024-25, the bilateral trade between India and China reached approximately US$ 127.71 billion, up from US$ 118.40 billion in FY24.
However, the trade balance is significantly in China’s favour. India recorded a trade deficit of US$ 99.2 billion with China in FY 2024-25.
Breaking down imports: In calendar year 2024, India’s imports from China were about US$ 126.96 billion, with major categories including electrical/electronic equipment (~US$ 47.67 billion) and machinery/nuclear reactors (~US$ 27.00 billion).
India’s exports to China remain modest: in 2024 they stood at roughly US$ 14.9 billion.

These figures show that while trade is vibrant, India’s export share is far lower compared to its imports from China, resulting in a structural trade imbalance.
Challenges Ahead
Export Growth to China: India’s exports to China have grown only modestly over the past decade (for example, from ~US$ 12 billion in 2015 to ~US$ 14.3 billion in 2025).

Trade Deficit: The massive deficit (~US$ 99.2 billion in FY25) remains a major concern for India’s policymakers.

Strategic Dependence: Heavy reliance on Chinese inputs in sectors like electronics or industrial goods reduces India’s strategic autonomy.

Non-trade Barriers & Market Access: Indian exporters face challenges in accessing the Chinese market while dealing with high import exposure.

Geopolitical Risk: Security tensions, shifting alliances, and external pressure (e.g., from the US) complicate the trade.
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🌏🤝 China to India: Let’s Be Partners, Not Rivals 🤝🌏

🕊️🇨🇳 In a strong and surprising message, China has called on India to see their relationship as a partnership, not a rivalry. With growing tension over borders, trade, and global influence, this new tone is a major shift — and could change the future of Asia. 🇨🇳🕊️

🇮🇳🌉 China says it doesn’t want to compete with India, but instead work together on development, peace, and mutual progress. By focusing on cooperation instead of conflict, both countries could boost their economies, trade more smoothly, and lead global change side by side. 🌉🇮🇳

🌍💬 But trust doesn’t come easy. Years of disagreements — from military standoffs to tech bans — have created deep cracks. China’s message now is about turning the page, building bridges, and acting like two smart neighbors, not distant enemies. 💬🌍

💡📈 The question is: will India respond with open arms or cautious steps? This moment is important — because what happens next could shape not just their future, but the future of Asia’s balance of power. 📈💡

💬🤔 Do you think India should accept China’s call for partnership, or stay alert and guarded? Drop your thoughts in the comments! 🤔💬

🙏❤️ If this topic sparked your interest, please follow, like with love, and share to support and grow this space together. Let’s build a community of smart, open minds! ❤️🙏

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