🚨 IS THE FED ALREADY TOO LATE FOR RATE CUTS?
Truflation is showing U.S. inflation near 0.68%, while layoffs, credit defaults, and bankruptcies keep rising — yet the Fed still insists the economy is “strong.”
If you compare what’s happening in the real economy vs what the Fed is saying publicly, the disconnect is becoming impossible to ignore.
The Fed keeps repeating that the labor market is solid.
But real-world data — layoffs, slower hiring, and weakening wage trends — is telling a different story.
We’re already seeing cracks beneath the surface.
The labor market isn’t collapsing overnight, but it’s clearly weakening faster than official statements suggest.
That same gap shows up in inflation.
The Fed continues to claim inflation is sticky.
But real-time inflation trackers like Truflation are now showing inflation around 0.68% — and that’s not a sign of overheating.
It’s a sign that price pressures are cooling rapidly, and the economy may be moving toward disinflation… and potentially deflation if the trend continues.
And deflation is the bigger danger.
Inflation slows spending.
Deflation stops spending.
When consumers expect prices to fall, they delay purchases. Businesses cut production, margins shrink, and layoffs accelerate. That’s when a slowdown turns into a deeper recession.
Another warning signal flashing right now is credit stress:
📉 Credit card delinquencies rising
📉 Auto loan defaults rising
📉 Corporate credit stress rising
These are classic late-cycle signals — they show up when households and businesses are already breaking under higher rates.
The cost of capital is now pressuring weak balance sheets. Small businesses and over-leveraged companies feel it first… but that pressure spreads when policy stays tight too long.
So the real question becomes timing:
If inflation is already cooling…
If the labor market is already weakening…
If credit stress is already rising…
⚠️ Is the Fed already behind the curve?
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