labormarket

The US labor market report (Nonfarm Payrolls, NFP) measures the net change in the number of employed people across the economy, including the private and public sectors. This means it also includes government employees, even those who were previously laid off during a government shutdown and later rehired.
However, this report can be misleading or inflated from an analytical perspective. The NFP counts all net changes in employment, not only genuinely new jobs created by economic growth. For example, if government workers were fired during a shutdown and then hired back, they are counted again as “new jobs” in the monthly statistics.
This signal is very bullish for crypto in the medium to long term.
In other words, the report does not distinguish between:
1. Real new job creation driven by economic expansion,
2. Temporary layoffs and rehires,
3. Job rotations, seasonal hiring, or contract work.
Because of this methodology, the headline number can appear stronger than the underlying economic reality. The labor market report often reflects statistical adjustments and employment normalization, rather than pure organic job growth.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The opinions expressed are personal and based on publicly available data. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
#️⃣ Hashtags:
#JobsReport #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #Macroeconomic #NFP

Labor demand is now weaker than levels seen during the 2001 recession.

US job openings just dropped to 6.5 million, falling 386,000 in December alone, the lowest level since September 2020 while over the last 2 months, openings have collapsed by 907,000.

From the March 2022 peak, job openings are now down 5.6 million, showing how fast labor demand has cooled.

Openings are now sitting below pre pandemic levels seen in 2018–2019.

This is not a good labor market anymore. It is weakening quickly. The vacancy to unemployed ratio has fallen to 0.87. That means there are fewer than 1 job available per unemployed worker.

This ratio is now:
• Below the pre pandemic high of 1.24
• Near 2021 stress levels
• Even weaker than readings seen during the 2001 recession

Challenger layoff data confirms the same trend. US employers announced 108,435 job cuts in January.

That is:
• +118% higher YOY
• +205% higher MOM
• The highest January layoff total since 2009 recession

Layoffs are no longer concentrated in one sector. They are spreading. Transportation led cuts with over 31,000 layoffs. Technology followed with 22,000.

Healthcare announced 17,000, one of the most concerning signals since healthcare was the last strong hiring pillar.

Even more worrying is that companies are not planning to replace these jobs. Hiring plans announced in January were just 5,306, the lowest January hiring total on record going back to 2009 tracking.

So companies are doing two things at once: Cutting more jobs, Planning fewer hires.

JOLTS data shows hiring rates are flat. Quit rates are stuck near 2.0%, meaning workers are not confident enough to leave jobs voluntarily. When quits fall while openings fall, it shows workers are defensive and firms are cautious.

This creates a frozen labor market. Low hiring. Low mobility. Rising layoff risk.

Putting all the data together:

• Job openings → falling sharply
• Vacancy ratio → below recession thresholds
• Layoffs → surging to post-GFC levels
• Hiring plans → record lows
• Quit rates → weak

The labor market has moved from cooling → contracting.

If this trend continues, it increases pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease faster.

But historically, the first phase of labor deterioration is risk off for markets. Only later does liquidity support arrive. For now, the signal is simple:

US labor market weakness is accelerating and recession risks are rising.
This article is my personal research and opinion, if you want to take some action try to do your own research.

#bullishleo #LaborMarket

As Labor Day brings a moment of pause, the cryptocurrency market takes a breath, reflecting on recent trends and future prospects.
The holiday period often sees reduced trading volumes, leading to increased market volatility.
Investors are advised to stay informed and cautious, as market fluctuations can be unpredictable.
Despite the calm, the crypto space continues to evolve, driven by technological advancements and growing adoption.
As the market moves forward, understanding the dynamics of crypto and its potential will be crucial for investors and enthusiasts alike.
The post-Labor Day market may bring new opportunities and challenges, shaping the future of digital assets.
$BNB $ETH $SOL

#StablecoinPayments #BinanceAlphaAlert #AltcoinETFsPostponed #AirdropSafetyGuide #LaborMarket

The U.S. labor market continues to demonstrate resilience as jobless claims decline, marking a promising turn in the nation’s economic narrative. In December 2024, the Department of Labor reported a sharp drop in weekly jobless claims to 200,000—a figure that beats expectations and suggests robust employment trends heading into the new year.
Key Figures and Trends
Recent Decline in Claims:Initial jobless claims fell by 15,000 compared to the previous week, marking the lowest level in three months.The four-week moving average, a more stable measure, also declined by 10,000, reaching 210,000.Continuing Claims:Continuing claims, which represent individuals still receiving unemployment benefits, dropped to 1.6 million, the lowest since mid-2023.Sector Analysis:Technology Sector: Despite high-profile layoffs at some tech giants earlier in the year, hiring in AI, cybersecurity, and software development has offset job losses.Healthcare and Construction: These sectors continue to drive employment growth, accounting for a combined 70,000 new jobs in the last quarter of 2024.
Economic Context
GDP Growth Alignment:The drop in jobless claims aligns with the 3.2% GDP growth reported for Q4 2024, signaling a broader economic recovery.Consumer spending remains robust, supported by lower inflation and rising wages.Inflation Impact:Inflation has cooled to 3.1%, down from its peak of 9.1% in 2022, allowing businesses to stabilize and expand hiring efforts.Federal Reserve Policy:The Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to interest rate hikes has supported businesses by maintaining borrowing costs at manageable levels.
Regional Insights
Northeast and Midwest:States like New York and Michigan have seen significant declines in jobless claims due to growth in manufacturing and logistics.Sunbelt States:Texas and Florida lead in job creation, particularly in energy, hospitality, and healthcare.
Challenges to Monitor
Labor Force Participation:While unemployment remains low at 3.5%, labor force participation rates have yet to return to pre-pandemic levels, particularly among older workers.Potential Layoffs:Some economists warn of potential layoffs in retail and seasonal employment as the holiday season winds down.Economic Uncertainty:Global factors, including geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, could pose risks to continued job market strength.
Expert Opinions
Optimistic Outlook:"The steady drop in jobless claims is a testament to the U.S. economy’s resilience and adaptability," said Sarah Jennings, an economist at MarketWatch.Cautious Notes:"We must remain vigilant, as labor market metrics can lag behind other economic indicators," cautioned John Miller, a labor economist at the University of Chicago.
Closing Thoughts
The decline in U.S. jobless claims is a positive indicator for the economy, reflecting robust hiring, reduced layoffs, and an overall healthy labor market. However, policymakers and businesses must address lingering challenges to ensure sustained growth in 2025 and beyond. As the U.S. labor market continues to evolve, its performance will remain a critical barometer of economic health.
#USJoblessClaimsDip #economy #LaborMarket #UnemploymentRate #USjobs