marketwrap

Mixed data. Volatile price action. Clear message: markets are pricing a slower growth trajectory with sticky wage pressures.

$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

🔐Key takeaways from the week’s macro releases and their immediate market impacts:

📉 US Labor Market – Soft Headline, Hot Wages
• Nonfarm Payrolls: +50K (vs +60K expected) → clear miss
• Average Hourly Earnings YoY: 3.8% (vs 3.6% exp) → strongest beat of the cycle
• Earlier ADP: only +41K

Impact:
- 10-year Treasury yield dropped 12bps intraday on weak headline → rate-cut odds for March jumped to 72%
- Wage beat capped the rally → yields closed the week only 5bps lower
- $DXY fell 0.8% on net dovish read, supporting risk assets
- $SPX +1.2% on the day, $NDX +1.8% as tech led the “bad news is good news” trade

📊 US PMIs – Tale of Two Economies
• ISM Manufacturing: 47.9 (miss) → contraction deepens
• ISM Services: 54.4 (strong beat vs 52.3 exp)

Impact:
- Early-week manufacturing miss pressured cyclicals and $DXY
- Services beat stabilized sentiment → financials and small-caps outperformed late week
- VIX dropped from 16.8 to 14.2 as growth fears eased slightly

🔥 Bottom Line
Markets interpreted the week as:
- Growth slowing (good for bonds & growth stocks)
- Wages refusing to cool (bad for aggressive Fed easing)

Net result: steeper curve, lower real yields, higher equity multiples.

Risk assets remain in control as long as wage growth doesn’t force a genuine hawkish repricing.

Watch next week: US CPI (Wed) and PPI (Thu) will decide if this dovish bias holds.

Positioning: Overweight quality growth, credit, and commodity-sensitive names. Stay nimble on rates.

last but not least

HAVE THE BEST WEEKEND OF YOUR LIFE!

#MarketWrap #NFP #USEconomy #FedWatch #Investing
$SPX $NDX $DXY $TNX $EURUSD

The domestic equity market ended the final trading session of 2025 on a positive note. Although early buying interest provided strong support, some late-session profit-taking slightly moderated gains toward the close. Nevertheless, the market finished the year reflecting underlying strength.
Throughout 2025, the ASPI delivered an impressive return of 41.9%, while the S&P SL20 advanced by 26.6%, highlighting a solid year for equity investors.
By year-end, the market capitalization of the Colombo Stock Exchange stood at LKR 8.1 trillion, with 288 listed companies. Total market turnover for the year amounted to LKR 1.2 trillion, while average daily turnover was recorded at LKR 5.2 billion.
IPO activity remained limited during the year, with CALH, JFP, and WTS joining the exchange.
At today’s close, the ASPI gained 178 points to finish at 22,624, while the S&P SL20 rose by 46 points to end the year at 6,157.
The main positive contributors to the ASPI were JKH, SFCL, ACL, SAMP, and HASU.
Daily turnover stood at LKR 4.7 billion, approximately 29% above the monthly average of LKR 3.6 billion. Retail investors dominated trading activity, while high-net-worth participation remained moderate.
Notable interest was observed in construction sector counters, with several stocks recording the highest turnovers for the session. From a sectoral perspective, the Capital Goods sector accounted for 46% of total turnover, while the Food, Beverage & Tobacco and Banking sectors together contributed around 20%.
Foreign investors continued to remain net sellers, recording a net outflow of LKR 103.3 million for the day.
Overall, the year-end performance reflects the market’s resilience and sets the tone for investor expectations heading into 2026.

#MarketWrap #YearEndClose #StrategyBTCPurchase #CPIWatch #USJobsData

Tensions rise — but Bitcoin ($BTC ) stays resilient
Crypto traders largely ignored a fresh wave of Trump’s tariff threats, focusing instead on the broader dynamics of global trade. Bitcoin ($BTC )dipped just around 0.7% in the past 24 hours, currently trading near $106,700, according to CoinDesk data.
Why the muted reaction?
Tariff delay offers breathing room
A proposed 50% tariff on EU imports—originally set to begin June 1—was pushed to July 9 after a “very nice” call between Trump and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.Temporary calm but ongoing uncertainty
Despite this delay, the 90‑day pause on reciprocal tariffs (excluding China) ends July 9  . The White House confirmed the deadline may be extended—but a snap back to heavy tariffs remains possible.
3. Crypto as a risk barometer
Historically, crypto has absorbed tariff-related shocks—May’s threat triggered ~$300–500 M in liquidations and a swift ~3–4% dip in $BTC .The current calm suggests markets are pricing in a possible extension or softer action.
Crypto outlook ahead
Short-term stability: With markets adapting to the reprieve, BTC has consolidated around the $106–110k band.Elevated risk toward July 9: The July deadline still looms large. Any reversal—either back to steep tariffs or another delay—could jolt crypto markets. Analyst Pav Hundal warns bulls may remain “trapped in this cycle of endless tariff ultimatums”.
Micro Interplay matters:
Central banks, led by the Fed, are walking a tightrope—tariff-driven inflation risks could pressure rate cuts, impacting both risk assets and crypto.
🛡️ What Traders Should Watch
July 9 deadline: Will Trump push it again or trigger tariffs?Inflation & Fed policy: Tariff-driven inflation could push the Fed toward unexpected action.Geopolitical spillovers: Tensions with Canada, China, and the EU may compound volatility.
Crypto markets are in standby mode—smaller shocks anticipated until the deadline. Investors watching macro headlines may find opportunities or traps in short-term price swings.

#CryptoMarkets #TrumpTariffs #MarketWrap
#CryptoUpdate #julydeadline