santarally

The promised "Santa Rally" to $100k Bitcoin has failed to materialize. Instead, $BTC is pinned at $89,000, leaving the market in a state of post-holiday disappointment.

Prices were suppressed in December by tax-loss harvesting. While the wash-sale rule expiry in January should technically bring buyers back, liquidity has yet to return. Market makers are waiting for ETF inflows to resume before making a move. Bulls see this as healthy consolidation, while bears are sounding the alarm that the cycle top may already be in.

Bitcoin is in "no-man’s land". If $85k breaks, a flush to $70k is possible; if $90k breaks, the path to $100k finally opens.
January ETF data is the most crucial catalyst for the month. Beyond that, traders are looking toward the Chinese New Year as the next potential "hope" date for a pump.
Santa didn't bring $100k Bitcoin. Is the bull run over or just delayed?.

#Bitcoin #SantaRally #CryptoMarket #BTC

Santa Claus rally refers to the sustained increases found in the stock market during the last five trading days of December through the first two trading days of January. Since 1950, during this seven-day trading window, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 1.3% and been positive 79% of the time.
Key Takeaways
The Santa Claus rally specifically occurs during a seven-day period spanning the last five trading days of December and first two trading days of January, with historical data showing positive returns about four-fifths of the time.The S&P 500 has averaged a 1.3% gain during this period since 1950, with even stronger average gains of 1.6% when considering data back to 1928.Theories for the rally include increased holiday shopping, seasonal optimism, end-of-tax-year considerations, and less institutional trading since many cut back on activity during the holidays.
Historical Data
Yale Hirsch, the founder of the annual Stock Trader's Almanac, coined the "Santa Claus Rally" in 1972 for the likely market performance during the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January.The period has historically shown higher stock prices about 79% of the time since 1950. The S&P 500 index has averaged a 1.3% gain during this time.When Santa only has coal for the stockings—i.e., stocks decline during this period—this has often preceded significant market downturns. Notable examples include 1999 when a 4.0% decline during the Santa Claus rally period was followed by the Dow's 37.8% slide over the next 33 months, and 2007, which preceded the 2008 financial crisis.
Important
According to data from TradingView, the S&P 500 gained about 1.58% during the 2023 Santa Claus rally period. The Dow was up by 0.82% over this time, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rallied 1.94%.
December
While the broader month of December has historically been a strong period for stocks, with the month showing gains about three-quarters of the time, the Santa Claus rally specifically focuses on the seven-day trading window around the turn of the year.Various theories have attempted to explain this phenomenon, including increased holiday shopping, general seasonal optimism, and the fact that many institutional investors are on vacation, leaving the market to typically more bullish retail investors. In addition, some suggest that the deployment of year-end bonuses and tax considerations play a role.
January
According to Hirsch, the first two trading days of January are an integral part of the Santa Claus rally period, tying it to broader January market patterns, including the "January Barometer," another phenomenon identified by Yale Hirsch in 1972.The January Barometer suggests that January's market performance often sets the tone for the rest of the year. Combined with the Santa Claus rally and the market's performance in the first five trading days of January—Hirsch calls it the "January Trifecta"—these indicators can help discern patterns in the market. Since 1950, when all three indicators are positive, the market has ended the year higher about 90% of the time, with an average gain of almost 18%.
Trading the Santa Claus Rally
While the Santa Claus rally is a well-documented phenomenon, trading it requires careful consideration. Since 1969, this seven-day period has delivered an average 1.3% gain in the S&P 500, but like any market pattern, there are no guarantees. For buy-and-hold investors and those saving for retirement in 401(k) plans, the Santa Claus rally should be more of a statistical curiosity than a reason to alter long-term investment strategies.
What Causes a Santa Claus Rally?
Several theories try to explain the Santa Claus rally, including investor optimism fueled by the holiday spirit, increased holiday shopping, And the investing of holiday bonuses. Another theory is that this is the time of year when institutional investors go on vacation, leaving the market to retail investors, who tend to be more bullish.
What Is the January Barometer?
The January Barometer is a theory that claims that the returns experienced in the January stock market predict the performance of the market for the upcoming year. 
How Was the Idea of the Santa Claus Rally Introduced?
Yale Hirsch followed stock market history and patterns and founded the Stock Trader’s Almanac in 1968. The almanac introduced the public to statistically predictable market phenomena such as the “Presidential Election Year Cycle”, “January Barometer,” and the “Santa Claus Rally."
TAKE AWAY
The Santa Claus rally represents one of Wall Street's most enduring seasonal patterns. While historical data shows the period has been reliably positive since 1950, investors should view holiday season price action within the context of their broader investment goals and risk tolerance. As with any market pattern, past performance does not guarantee future results, and success in trading these patterns often requires careful risk management and a solid understanding of market conditions.
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