scarcity

As a trained oil and gas reserves engineer, I was taught to live by one ratio: Reserves ÷ Production Rate.
​In the energy world, this tells you exactly how long your inventory lasts before the wells run dry. But when you apply this engineering logic to Bitcoin, the math gets aggressive.
1. The "Strict Reservoir" Reality
​In oil, high prices solve their own scarcity. If crude hits $150, we drill more, find new fields, and revise reserves upward.
Bitcoin doesn't care about the price. * Supply: Hard-capped at 21 million.
​New Discoveries: Zero.
​Reserve Revisions: Impossible.
​2. The Math of the "7.9x" Coverage Ratio
​Let's look at the depletion logic currently hitting the market:
​ETF Holdings: ~1.3M BTC (and growing)
New Annual Issuance: ~164K BTC (post-halving)The Ratio: 7.9xThis means institutional demand is currently sitting on nearly 8 years' worth of new supply. When long-duration buyers absorb multiple years of future production in a single cycle, the asset doesn't need a "narrative" to reprice—it just needs time.
3. The Market Structure Shift
We aren't just seeing a price pump; we are seeing capital concentration. * BTC Dominance: Rose from ~38% in 2023 to ~60% today.
​This isn't "crypto" fever; this is a flight to the highest-conviction asset on the planet.
​The Bottom Line
Yes, OG holders will sell into strength. Yes, the path will be volatile. But game theory suggests large holders distribute gradually, while patient institutional flows provide a persistent "net absorption" floor.
​Short-term price is noise. Long-term, if absorption continues to outpace new supply, the clearing pressure has only one direction to go: Up.
What’s your take? Do you think the ETFs have permanently broken the traditional 4-year cycle math? Let's discuss below. 👇

#bitcoin #BTC #MacroView #InstitutionalCrypto #scarcity
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لماذا "الندرة" هي محرك القيمة

قد تظن أن القيمة تأتي من الفائدة البحتة، لكن ماذا لو قلت لك أن القوة الحقيقية تكمن غالبًا في شيء أبسط بكثير، وأحيانًا حتى محبط قليلاً؟

كما تعلم، نحن غالبًا ما ننجذب نحو الأشياء المفيدة للغاية، مثل تطبيقاتنا المفضلة أو فنجان القهوة القديم الموثوق.
لكن عندما يتعلق الأمر بالقيمة، خاصة في العملات المشفرة، فإن المكون السري الحقيقي هو الندرة.
فكر في تلك الأحذية الرياضية ذات الإصدار المحدود أو بطاقة التحصيل النادرة التي يريدها الجميع بشغف أقل عدد من العناصر مقارنةً بالأشخاص الذين يرغبون فيها.