#FOMCMeeting Here’s the latest on the #FOMCMeeting (June 17–18, 2025):

🕒 Decision & Rates

The Federal Reserve is expected—and widely anticipated—to hold interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, a range maintained since December 2024 . Markets see nearly a 100% probability of no change this week .

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📊 **Policy Outlook (“Dot Plot” & Projections)**

Updated projections likely to reflect slower growth and higher inflation than in March .

Analysts expect the “dot plot” may shift more hawkishly, signalling perhaps only one rate cut this year—and maybe even delaying cuts until September or later .

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🌍 Key Risks & Considerations

1. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (Israel–Iran missile exchanges) have elevated oil prices, adding inflation risk .

2. Tariff uncertainty under Trump’s trade policies continues to pose a stagflation threat—slowing growth while fueling inflation .

3. Domestic data: Retail sales and industrial production likely showed weakness in May, while inflation showed signs of cooling—but the labor market remains fairly strong (unemployment at ~4.2%) .

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🎤 Fed Chair Press Conference

Jerome Powell will speak around 2:30 pm EDT (1830 GMT) Wednesday, offering insights on their stance and economic projections .

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🔍 Summary Forecast:

Hold short-term rates at 4.25–4.50%

Dot plot skewing more hawkish—fewer cuts this year

Press conference critical for forward guidance

Watch outs: oil, tariffs, growth and inflation trajectory

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