Analyst Jeremy Boulton has highlighted concerns over a sudden drop in gold prices, which could trigger a chain reaction affecting other metals. According to Jin10, this situation might lead investors to take profits or even sell off fundamentally strong assets to cover losses. The market currently holds significant unrealized gains, with the stock market remaining robust except for AI-related stocks. In the forex market, investors who engaged in carry trades with high-risk, high-yield currencies over the past year have also seen substantial profits. Despite the high risks associated with these bets, the returns have been considerable, similar to investments in the stock market and the euro.
During the trade war, the euro appreciated significantly, reinforcing its perception as a safer alternative to global reserve currencies. As gold prices fell, the euro-dollar exchange rate also declined, prompting traders to take profits. Although the euro-dollar long positions are not as crowded as those in gold, signs of overbought conditions have emerged as it surpassed the 1.20 mark. Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange indicates that the $20 billion in bets on the euro's rise surpasses any other currency pair. As risk aversion increases, the previously sold-off dollar is being repurchased, providing traders with a reason to take profits.