The recent collapse of Bitcoin is not due to a change in its code (the 21 million cap remains), but rather to a structural mutation of the market: the price is no longer driven solely by actual ownership of coins, but by derivative instruments that “duplicate” exposure.

1. The Myth of Scarcity vs. Synthetic Expansion

Originally, Bitcoin’s value was based on absolute scarcity (21 million units). Today, however, there exists a form of “synthetic supply” (or Paper Bitcoin):

Expansion of the float: Through futures, ETFs, options, and swaps, the same unit of $BTC can simultaneously back multiple financial products.

Effect: Even though on-chain coins are limited, the “tradable” supply in financial markets increases, diluting the perception of scarcity during sell-offs.

2. Shift in Price Discovery

Bitcoin’s price no longer primarily reacts to supply and demand of “real coins” (the spot market), but to dynamics typical of traditional finance:

Derivatives > Spot: When derivatives volume exceeds spot volume, price action follows liquidations, leverage, and the positioning of large traders.

Disconnect from fundamentals: This explains why Bitcoin can crash even when on-chain data (holder accumulation) appears positive: the pressure comes from forced selling in leveraged markets.

3. Why Is the Market Crashing?

According to this analysis, the current crash is a positioning crisis:

It is not necessary for anyone to sell physical Bitcoin to drive the price down; it is enough for derivatives to generate synthetic pressure or for cascading liquidations to be triggered.

Bitcoin has aligned itself with the markets for gold, oil, and silver, where prices are dictated by the “paper market” rather than by the physical exchange of the asset.

In short: The 21 million cap still exists on the blockchain, but in financial markets Bitcoin behaves as if many more units existed, making its price vulnerable to leverage-driven storms and less dependent on real scarcity.