🔥 $我踏马来了
Market Outlook — Strong Downtrend, Tactical Bounce Setup
Trend Context
$我踏马来了 remains in a strong bearish trend on higher timeframes. However, current conditions indicate a potential short-term technical rebound rather than a trend reversal.
Momentum & Technical Signals
RSI below 20 signals extreme oversold conditions
Price is trading at the lower Bollinger Band, historically an area where short-term bounces may occur
Lower-timeframe structure hints at early positive divergence, increasing the probability of a relief move
Key Support Level
The 0.0230 zone is a critical structural support. A firm hold above this level could trigger short covering and opportunistic dip-buying.
Capital Flow Analysis
Short-term inflows:
1H: +298K, suggesting speculative buying interest
Broader outflows:
24H: -808K, confirming that overall market pressure remains bearish
This flow structure supports a bounce thesis, not sustained upside.
Trade Plan — Counter-Trend Long
Entry Zone: 0.0245 – 0.0255, near recent 24H lows
Stop Loss: Below 0.0230
Targets: 0.030 – 0.0320, aligned with short-term resistance and mean reversion levels
Risk Disclaimer
This is a counter-trend trade in a strongly bearish market. Position sizing should be reduced, profits taken aggressively, and discipline maintained. A clean break below 0.0230 would invalidate the bounce setup entirely.
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