نشر
BullishBanter
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VERY IMPORTANT: I called the last 3 major market tops and bottoms
A lot of people seem uneasy right now because Bitcoin has dropped below Strategy’s average entry price. That average sits around $76,000.
So I’m posting this while rubbing the sleep out of my eyes, hoping it can at least offer a bit of emotional support.
What follows is highly logical.
First of all, in moments like this, it’s worth thinking through the worst-case scenario.
Once you genuinely accept the worst case, nothing worse can really happen. That alone helps neutralize the market’s biggest enemy: Impatience and it keeps panic at bay.
So let’s look at a worstcase scenario that hasn’t actually happened yet. A chain reaction of treasury companies going bankrupt.
Up to now, these companies have been accumulating Bitcoin under pressure, issuing new shares, often at a discount, to raise capital.
Once the average purchase price drops by around 30%, insolvency risk starts to rise meaningfully. At that point, forced selling becomes unavoidable.
That said, if a small treasury company fails, the market impact is limited.
This is where Strategy matters as an indicator. It’s the world’s largest treasury company by far.
Its average Bitcoin purchase price is around $76,000, and it holds roughly 713,500 BTC.
A 30% drop from $76,000 puts us at about $53,000.
I don’t think it gets anywhere near that level.
Why? Because of a historical anomaly that has held throughout Bitcoin’s entire history, something I’ve mentioned many times. The high before a halving has never fallen below the low after the halving.
There was only one brief exception, and that exception turned out to be the absolute buying opportunity.
That “once-in-a-generation” opportunity is still fresh in everyone’s mind: the second half of 2022, around $10,000.
This cycle, that line sits at roughly $69,000.
Based on that historical pattern, it’s reasonable to assume that Strategy’s average purchase price will not be meaningfully breached.
Of course, if they keep buying, the average price changes, so the numbers always need to be monitored.
But at this stage, you can sketch out a scenario in which the world’s largest treasury company survives.
If that happens, the probability increases that the global accumulation culture remains deeply intact.
To be clear, this is framed purely as a worst-case scenario.
And as I often say. Once you’ve accepted the worst case, nothing worse tends to happen and the market’s greatest enemy, impatience, loses its power.
Reminder: I called the last 3 major market tops and bottoms.
All you have to do is turn on notifications and pay close attention.
Many people will regret not following me sooner, trust me.
So I’m posting this while rubbing the sleep out of my eyes, hoping it can at least offer a bit of emotional support.
What follows is highly logical.
First of all, in moments like this, it’s worth thinking through the worst-case scenario.
Once you genuinely accept the worst case, nothing worse can really happen. That alone helps neutralize the market’s biggest enemy: Impatience and it keeps panic at bay.
So let’s look at a worstcase scenario that hasn’t actually happened yet. A chain reaction of treasury companies going bankrupt.
Up to now, these companies have been accumulating Bitcoin under pressure, issuing new shares, often at a discount, to raise capital.
Once the average purchase price drops by around 30%, insolvency risk starts to rise meaningfully. At that point, forced selling becomes unavoidable.
That said, if a small treasury company fails, the market impact is limited.
This is where Strategy matters as an indicator. It’s the world’s largest treasury company by far.
Its average Bitcoin purchase price is around $76,000, and it holds roughly 713,500 BTC.
A 30% drop from $76,000 puts us at about $53,000.
I don’t think it gets anywhere near that level.
Why? Because of a historical anomaly that has held throughout Bitcoin’s entire history, something I’ve mentioned many times. The high before a halving has never fallen below the low after the halving.
There was only one brief exception, and that exception turned out to be the absolute buying opportunity.
That “once-in-a-generation” opportunity is still fresh in everyone’s mind: the second half of 2022, around $10,000.
This cycle, that line sits at roughly $69,000.
Based on that historical pattern, it’s reasonable to assume that Strategy’s average purchase price will not be meaningfully breached.
Of course, if they keep buying, the average price changes, so the numbers always need to be monitored.
But at this stage, you can sketch out a scenario in which the world’s largest treasury company survives.
If that happens, the probability increases that the global accumulation culture remains deeply intact.
To be clear, this is framed purely as a worst-case scenario.
And as I often say. Once you’ve accepted the worst case, nothing worse tends to happen and the market’s greatest enemy, impatience, loses its power.
Reminder: I called the last 3 major market tops and bottoms.
All you have to do is turn on notifications and pay close attention.
Many people will regret not following me sooner, trust me.
إخلاء المسؤولية: تتضمن آراء أطراف خارجية. ليست نصيحةً مالية. يُمكن أن تحتوي على مُحتوى مُمول. اطلع على الشروط والأحكام.