Buying the bottom 🔍

So yes, we’re in a bear market. That part is obvious now. Back in November it wasn’t but I kept pushing caution. Tried to explain that the closer you get to the end of a bull market, the less risk you should be taking. Most people do the opposite.

😊 One piece of good news. This bear market has already been running for about 124 days since the October 6 ATH.

So far, the 4-year BTC cycle theory is still holding up. This year is about finding the bottom. Later, I'll make a series of posts about it and show some indicators and my own reads to help navigate the downtrend.

🗓 Historically, BTC bear markets are brutal. Average drawdowns are over 75%. But each cycle hurts a bit less as Bitcoin grows. Roughly 93% → 87% → 84% → 75%.

If we assume the same logic applies again, with more institutional money and a larger holder base, the bottom likely comes with a smaller drawdown than last cycle. Say from -50% to -70% from ATH. That puts the lowest price somewhere between 60k and 37k.

Also, bear markets usually last about a year, around 365 days. If history keeps rhyming, this one probably grinds into fall 2026. That’s the window where bottoms are usually made 🤔

part 1/2