As a battle-tested crypto trader, this #RiskAssetsMarketShock is a brutal mix of geo-risks and chart breakdowns. Crypto's market cap has tanked $2T+ from October 2025 highs, with BTC crashing below $64K on Feb 5—its ugliest drop since FTX—before rebounding to $70K by Feb 6. Blame the US-Iran flare-up, Fed hawkishness, and safe-haven shifts to gold, up 70% while BTC's down 35%. As of Feb 8, 2026, here's the latest breakdown.
Fundamentally, Trump's 25% tariff on Iran traders and Strait of Hormuz incidents have spiked oil to $72, adding a 12% risk premium. Oman talks offer hope, but a blockade threat looms over 20% of global oil. Crypto's hit hard: $3.2B BTC losses realized Feb 5, whale dumps like 5K BTC on Binance, and ETF outflows of $434M for BTC, $81M for ETH. Bright spots: BlackRock's $232M BTC ETF inflow and Binance's SAFU boost with 3.6K BTC. Polymarket odds: 31% for US strikes by Feb 13, 53% for a nuke deal this year.
X sentiment's split: Bulls eye sub-$70K as last dip before altseason, with Saylor nudging Musk and India-US deals in play. Bears flag whale sells, but Trump's Russia nuke pact talk could cool things.
My call: Bottom near if tensions ease, but watch Strait risks and Fed cues. $14B stablecoin outflows signal liquidity squeeze; sentiment at lows screams contrarian buy. Scale in smart—crypto's resilient, but weak hands are shaking out.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
BTCUSD Daily Chart – Bearish Retrace
Daily shows $BTC in deep correction from $126K ATH, testing $60K before $70K bounce. Below 200-day MA ($75K), 50-day ($88K) as resistance. RSI oversold <30, $1B+ liqs on sells. 61.8% Fib at $57.5K potential floor. Base in $54K-$60K; reclaim $72K turns bullish. Geo fix could rally to $80K.
BTCUSD 4-Hour Chart – Bottom Formation
4H hints double bottom at $60K with RSI divergence. Resistance $65.9K-$67.7K; support $59.8K-$62.5K. Thin books amp volatility—geo ease could slingshot higher; else, $50K if $54K breaks.