Assuming you agree with the previous post's premise that this bear market will resemble previous ones in terms of % drop and duration, here is a chart showing the ideal zone to accumulate BTC. And yeah, the cleanest way to build a position in a bear market is boring DCA 🤷♀️
If you think BTC bottoms somewhere inside the green box, the goal isn’t to nail the exact low. Pick the total amount of BTC you want to own, split it into 10, 20, maybe 30 pieces, and place limit orders step by step lower. Build a net. As price drops, it fills you automatically instead of forcing decisions in panic.
🐻 A few things people forget every cycle:
🔴Most people don't buy the bottom. Just like almost nobody sells the top. Waiting for perfection usually means missing the move.
🔴Bear markets don’t bottom in a single dramatic candle. They bottom in boredom. Weeks or months of flat, ugly price action. People stop caring. BTC is “dead.” No one wants to buy. Then price leaves and never comes back.
🔴The market hits bottom when sellers stop selling, not when there are a lot of buyers. The biggest sellers should be exhausted, and late buyers should capitulate and realize their losses.
🔴The biggest pumps occur in bear markets. This may seem counterintuitive, but it's true. Even if you perfectly predict the market bottom, there will be many huge dead cat bounces and opportunities to get liquidated with a leveraged short.
🔴Right near the bottom, there’s always a crowd calling for lower. I remember how last cycle at 16–17k, so many people were convinced 12k was coming. After a massive drawdown from ATH, waiting for one more leg down is bad r/r.
part 2/2
