#etf
📉 Why Bitcoin ETF Flow Data Is “Broken” and What You’re Missing
If you look at the total ETF inflow/outflow figure as a “sentiment indicator” of the market, you’re probably making a mistake. Recent events (January 30 – February 4, 2026) prove that the total in the table is just a scoreboard, not a description of the game.
🔴 The “total minus” trap
January 30: The market sees a terrible -$509.7 million in net outflow. Does it seem like panic?
But if you “break down” the numbers:
• IBIT: -$528.3 million (a giant exit by one or two players).
• The rest of the market: actually in a slight plus.
While one cat walked out the door of BlackRock, small islands (FBTC, ARKB) continued to absorb supply.
🟢 When is the “green” color real?
February 2: We saw a real “buy day”. +$561.8 million, distributed between IBIT, FBTC, BITB and ARKB. This is a signal of broad demand - when different boards, different platforms and different types of investors buy at the same time.
⚠️ A sign of an upcoming collapse (Dispersion)
The real alarm bell sounded on February 3. The overall result was red (-$272 million), but IBIT still showed +$60 million. This dissynchronization (dispersion) means that there is no longer a single front of buyers. When the market finally “synchronized” into the negative on February 4, the price of $BTC broke through $71,000.
🔍 3 questions to ask before analyzing the table:
1. How concentrated is the outflow? Is it one fund pulling everyone to the bottom, or is the entire sector “pouring”?
2. How much money is in the “green” zone? Widespread greening is more important than one big number.
3. Is there repetition? One day may be a technical adjustment of portfolios, three days is already a behavioral trend.
