Some reflections after today:
- Worst crash since #FTX collapse and Covid. Extremely fast and aggressive
- $BTC
at -50% since ATH, most alts died (-70% to -99%)
- Speculation that some hedge funds blew up or turned into forced/mechanical sellers
- Maybe tied to some big IBIT ETF holders (hedge funds) that got nuked in metals
- I am not buying anything here, I expect a bottom in the next 6 months
- Don't care about alts nuking because I hold none, sold them all since 2024
- Portfolio got a heavy haircut, will hold my BTC bag and add more on discounts
hedge did well, lots of learning from recent price action on BTC/Gold
- The performance of your portfolio in such moments shows your experience (or lack of)
- Seen three bear markets to date, this is more or less in line with expectations
- Watch price action closely in the next six months, key area for BTC between 50k and 30k (see chart)
- Buy hard when the market is dead and flat, not panic. This is not it
- A relief rally is likely now, but we do not know if the forced sellers are done selling
- This drop was so aggressive, other big investors may be in trouble now (Saylor is underwater too)
- Based on volume analysis, this crash is not the bottom
- If this is your first bear market, know that BTC will make a new ATH within 2 years
- Prudent to exit all new DeFi protocols that were untested in previous bear markets
- Stay in Gold, BTC, or cash. If you still hold alts, sell them in next bull market
- Based on current price action, my focus will be to buy more BTC instead of Gold in 2026
- In the top 100, only Hyperliquid is worth mentioning and was/is in green in Jan/Feb 2026