Cryptocurrency market is known for its sudden shifts, and Aster (ASTER) has recently become a prime example. In mid-January, the weakness in Aster’s price action was clearly shown when it hit a "supply zone" at $0.70—a level where many sellers were waiting. Over the last two weeks, Aster managed to climb to a high of $0.711, but that peak was short-lived. The price quickly fell back down, reaching a low of $0.403.

This sharp drop happened during a broader market sell-off when Bitcoin (BTC) dipped to the $60k mark. However, since hitting that low, Aster has staged an impressive comeback, bouncing up by 53.85% in just three days. While this rally looks exciting on the surface, there is a major "threat" looming that traders need to keep in mind.

Even with this recent jump, the 1-day price chart still shows a bearish (downward) trend. Adding to the concern is a massive upcoming token unlock scheduled for February 17th. On this day, 78.11 million ASTER tokens—worth approximately $44.49 million—will be released into the market. While these tokens aren't always sold immediately, they increase the total supply, which can lower the value of the coins already in circulation.

Given the current cautious mood of the market, many expect a wave of selling pressure later in February. On a more positive note, the project’s team has been active with its Strategic Reserve Buyback Fund, showing their long-term commitment by buying back tokens to help support the price.

ASTER bounce could extend slightly further

Despite the long-term worries, there is still some room for Aster to move higher in the very short term. Looking at the 1-day chart, the price broke its downward structure in mid-January. By using Fibonacci retracement levels—a tool traders use to find potential turning points—we can see that $0.656 and $0.725 are the key resistance levels to watch. These are the "ceilings" where the price might struggle to go higher.

Currently, moving averages show that the overall trend is still bearish, and the A/D (Accumulation/Distribution) indicator suggests that selling pressure remains steady. When you combine this bearish bias with the upcoming token release, the path forward for traders becomes much clearer.

Traders’ call to action – Sell the bounce

For many analysts, the best strategy right now is to "sell the bounce." Data shows that while liquidations around the $0.60 level have been cleared out, there is a thick "band of liquidity" near $0.734. This makes $0.734 a likely target for the price to hit before it potentially turns back down.

Furthermore, Bitcoin could see a "short squeeze" (a rapid price increase) toward $72k–$74k early in the week, which might temporarily pull Aster higher. Because of this, traders are advised to wait for the price to hit the $0.73–$0.74 range and watch for a bearish reaction before making a move. To the downside, the next targets for the price to fall toward are $0.53 and $0.46, with a possibility of returning to the $0.405 level eventually.

Final Thoughts

Bearish Trend: Aster’s price remains in a strong downward trend despite the 53% bounce seen over the last three days.

The Strategy: Traders should look to sell during this short-term rally as the price approaches $0.74.

The Unlock: The large token unlock on February 17th is a major event that could trigger more selling later this month.

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