These past few days I’ve noticed more and more brothers starting to talk about $BTC
dropping back into the 3x range.
It sounds logical… but this exact narrative has played out many times before.
Let me share a quick story from the last cycle so it’s easier to see the pattern.
When BTC was crashing, the crowd was almost unanimously waiting for “the big recovery to 100k” so they could finally exit.
Everyone was super confident:
“It has to hit 100k, that’s when I sell.”
What actually happened?
BTC managed to crawl up to around 97k… then completely collapsed.
The only people who got out decently were the small group who were actually watching price action closely — the ones who didn’t anchor themselves emotionally to one nice round number.
Now back to today.
I’m not saying BTC cannot revisit the 3x zone. It’s possible.
But personally, I believe that if we get a really deep drop, the 5x area is already a very strong zone where the market is likely to produce a meaningful reaction.
The market has zero obligation to give the majority what they’re hoping for.
In fact, it very often moves in exactly the way that frustrates and shakes out the largest number of people.
What I want brothers to really take from this:
Stop trying to pinpoint the exact bottom
Don’t let one number live rent-free in your head
Focus on what price is actually doing, not on what the crowd is chanting
The survivors in this game are rarely the best “guessers”
They’re the ones who respect price, stay flexible, and protect their capital above everything else
Right now my stance is simple:
Slow down.
Observe carefully.
Holding cash is far better than forcing entries trying to catch a falling knife.
I’ll update my view publicly whenever the market structure actually shifts in a meaningful way.
That’s it for now.