#USRetailSalesMissForecast The February 2026 #USRetailSalesMissForecast has hit the markets like a cold shower, showing that the American consumer—the backbone of the economy—is finally losing steam.
The "Core" Facts
* The Big Flat: Headline retail sales came in at 0.0%, a massive miss compared to the predicted +0.4%.
* The "Real" Slump: The "Control Group" (which excludes volatile items like gas and food) actually shrank by 0.1%, indicating a real decline in core spending.
* Sector Pain: High-ticket items like furniture (-0.9%) and clothing (-0.7%) took the hardest hits, while even dining out (-0.1%) saw a rare dip.
* The Silver Lining: Building materials (+1.2%) was the only major winner, likely due to post-shutdown infrastructure repairs.
The "Why" Behind the Miss
* Shutdown Hangover: The 43-day government shutdown in late 2025 severely dented consumer confidence.
* Tariff Fatigue: Increased costs from trade tensions are finally showing up on price tags, causing "sticker shock" at the register.
* Front-Loading: Shoppers spent early in November, leaving their wallets empty for the new year.
Market Impact
* Fed Pivot is Back: This data counters the "hot" jobs report, making a July rate cut look more likely again as the Fed tries to avoid a recession.
* Retail Stocks Dip: Major retailers saw immediate sell-offs as analysts lowered their Q1 profit expectations.
* The "Dovish" Shift: Bond yields fell and the US Dollar weakened as growth fears replaced inflation fears.
