$BTC

Low Price, High Opportunity (EOY ~$160K)

• Spot: $66.3K

• Power-law fair value: $123.4K

• Gap: -$57.1K (-46.3%)

• Z-score: -0.89 (oversold)

• Mean-reversion half-life: 4.4 months (~$107K)

• Strongest predictive horizon: 18 months ($195K)

• 18 month signal: r = -0.7857, R² = 0.6174, p = 0.0121 (strong)

Most important number: -46.3% discount to trend.

Gamma Flip price: $68,132

13 Feb: $63M (20.9%) → immediate pin release

27 Feb: $64M (21.2%) → second major release wave

Combined by Feb 27: $152M (50.5%)

Historically large deviations mean-revert.

Short term: volatile.

Medium/long term: bullish, reducing the gap