The January 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, February 13, 2026.
The report brought a welcomed surprise to the markets, showing that inflation cooled more than expected. This reading represents the slowest annual pace of inflation since May 2025, largely driven by a significant dip in energy and specific grocery costs.
The Headline Numbers
Metric Actual (Jan 2026) Forecast Previous (Dec 2025)
Headline CPI (YoY) 2.4% 2.5% 2.7%
Core CPI (YoY) 2.5% 2.5% 2.6%
Headline CPI (MoM) 0.2% 0.3% 0.3%
Core CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Key Takeaways & Market Impact
The Energy Relief: The headline decline was heavily supported by a 1.5% drop in energy prices over the month, with gasoline prices falling 3.2%.
Mixed Grocery Bag: While overall food inflation rose slightly (0.2% MoM), specific "kitchen table" items like beef, eggs, and gasoline saw notable price relief. However, nonalcoholic beverages (+4.5% YoY) and full-service meals (+4.7% YoY) remain sticky.
Shelter Still Matters: The shelter index rose 0.2% in January, continuing to be the largest contributor to the monthly increase, though its annual rate slowed to 3.0%.
Tariff Watch: Analysts noted that while tariffs on consumer goods (like appliances and computers) began pushing prices up, the impact was partially offset by existing inventories.
Fed Implications: Following the release, market odds for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in June 2026 jumped to approximately 83%, as the "disinflation" narrative gained fresh momentum.
Note: This report was slightly delayed from its original schedule due to a partial government shutdown earlier in February.