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CRYPTO MECHANIC
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Why Bitcoin Bulls Are Struggling: A Full Market Breakdown
Bitcoin is down 50% from its all-time high, and the price is still struggling to catch a bid. Let’s break down the higher timeframes to see where we are and what we can expect next.
BTCUSD (Monthly)
The monthly chart has been in an uptrend since the $16K bottom. The last higher low was formed around $74K, and the price is currently trading below it. A monthly close below $74K would break the bullish structure on the monthly timeframe.
Historically, every time Bitcoin has broken its monthly trend, the price has dropped another 40%–45%. Am I saying it will happen again? Of course not. But this is what has happened in the past.
BTCUSD (Weekly)
Bitcoin has been forming lower lows and lower highs on the weekly chart. That means the weekly trend remains bearish unless Bitcoin manages to shift its market structure.
As long as Bitcoin stays below the $95K–$97K range, the weekly trend will remain bearish. I know $97K is far from the current price, but this is a higher-timeframe structure, and Bitcoin sold off very aggressively, leaving the lower high this far away.
BTCUSD Weekly (A Different Perspective)
Bitcoin is currently trading around its 2024 highs. This zone acted as resistance for several months. You might have heard the concept in technical analysis: resistance can turn into support, and support can turn into resistance.
We are applying the same theory here. If Bitcoin manages to flip this zone into support, we could see a short-term move to the upside.
If Bitcoin turns this area into support, we may see a move toward the $76K–$78K zone, maybe even higher if there is enough momentum behind it.
But remember, even if Bitcoin moves up from here, it changes nothing in the bigger picture. The overall trend would still remain bearish.
BTCUSD (Daily)
The daily chart is also in a clear downtrend giving no hopes to bulls.
The Trade Plan
We discussed above that if bitcoin managed to flip that $66k zone into support we may see a move up. But there is a big difference between predicting a price and executing a trade.
For a trade setup, It is a waiting game for now.
The $71K–$72K zone has been continuously rejecting price on the lower timeframes. If Bitcoin manages to break above it and hold, I think this could open the door to the targets we discussed earlier.
Important Note
Monthly chart: bearish
Weekly chart: bearish
Daily chart: bearish
If Bitcoin fails to hold it should not be a surprise because every timeframe is bearish right now. If you’re expecting the price to go up or taking a counter-trend trade, remember: the chances of being wrong are very high because you’re fighting the trend.
I usually share two trade scenarios: a breakout trade and a pullback trade. Right now, I don’t have a pullback scenario. I want to see a lower-timeframe trend shift before I can be confident that it might be the right time.
The best trade is always the one taken in the direction of the trend.
Good luck & Stay Safe
BTCUSD (Monthly)
The monthly chart has been in an uptrend since the $16K bottom. The last higher low was formed around $74K, and the price is currently trading below it. A monthly close below $74K would break the bullish structure on the monthly timeframe.
Historically, every time Bitcoin has broken its monthly trend, the price has dropped another 40%–45%. Am I saying it will happen again? Of course not. But this is what has happened in the past.
BTCUSD (Weekly)
Bitcoin has been forming lower lows and lower highs on the weekly chart. That means the weekly trend remains bearish unless Bitcoin manages to shift its market structure.
As long as Bitcoin stays below the $95K–$97K range, the weekly trend will remain bearish. I know $97K is far from the current price, but this is a higher-timeframe structure, and Bitcoin sold off very aggressively, leaving the lower high this far away.
BTCUSD Weekly (A Different Perspective)
Bitcoin is currently trading around its 2024 highs. This zone acted as resistance for several months. You might have heard the concept in technical analysis: resistance can turn into support, and support can turn into resistance.
We are applying the same theory here. If Bitcoin manages to flip this zone into support, we could see a short-term move to the upside.
If Bitcoin turns this area into support, we may see a move toward the $76K–$78K zone, maybe even higher if there is enough momentum behind it.
But remember, even if Bitcoin moves up from here, it changes nothing in the bigger picture. The overall trend would still remain bearish.
BTCUSD (Daily)
The daily chart is also in a clear downtrend giving no hopes to bulls.
The Trade Plan
We discussed above that if bitcoin managed to flip that $66k zone into support we may see a move up. But there is a big difference between predicting a price and executing a trade.
For a trade setup, It is a waiting game for now.
The $71K–$72K zone has been continuously rejecting price on the lower timeframes. If Bitcoin manages to break above it and hold, I think this could open the door to the targets we discussed earlier.
Important Note
Monthly chart: bearish
Weekly chart: bearish
Daily chart: bearish
If Bitcoin fails to hold it should not be a surprise because every timeframe is bearish right now. If you’re expecting the price to go up or taking a counter-trend trade, remember: the chances of being wrong are very high because you’re fighting the trend.
I usually share two trade scenarios: a breakout trade and a pullback trade. Right now, I don’t have a pullback scenario. I want to see a lower-timeframe trend shift before I can be confident that it might be the right time.
The best trade is always the one taken in the direction of the trend.
Good luck & Stay Safe
إخلاء المسؤولية: تتضمن آراء أطراف خارجية. ليست نصيحةً مالية. يُمكن أن تحتوي على مُحتوى مُمول. اطلع على الشروط والأحكام.