$PIPPIN Trade Bias: LONG 📈

Higher Timeframe (4H) Narrative:

We sold off hard from 0.643 down to 0.444. That’s a -31% drop. But look at the funding history: it was negative during the sell-off (shorts were getting paid), but the last two snapshots flipped positive (0.024% and 0.113%). That means the aggressive shorts are now paying to stay in. They are trapped at the bottom, betting on more downside that isn’t materializing. The 200 MA on the 4H is still miles below—this is a mean reversion setup, not a trend continuation.

Lower Timeframe Execution (15m/1h):

Price is coiling. The Bollinger Bands are tight (UP: 0.463, MB: 0.455, DN: 0.448). RSI has recovered from 26 to 33—momentum is building. Volume is drying up on the bounce, meaning sellers are exhausted. The order book shows massive bid support from 0.44 down to 0.40. That’s the floor.

Market Psychology & The Trap:

Retail sees -28% and thinks “short the bounce.” They see the rejection at 0.46 and pile in late. But the smart money is stacking bids and letting the shorts fund their position. The longs who bought the top are already washed out. The new shorts are the exit liquidity.

🔥 The Setup:

· Entry Zone: 0.4450 – 0.4470 (current consolidation, waiting for a 15m close above 0.4480 to confirm)

· Stop Loss: 0.4435 (below today’s low and the lower BB)

· Target 1: 0.4550 (sweep the recent mini-range high)

· Target 2: 0.4750 (prior support / 15m EMA resistance)

· Target 3: 0.4950 (liquidity grab above the 4H open)

· Risk-to-Reward: 1:4 on first target, 1:8 on full runners

Invalidation: A daily close below 0.4400. That would trap the bulls.

This is a funding flip + support bid play. The shorts are crowded, paying to be wrong, and the bids are real. We’re not guessing a bottom—we’re trading the structural imbalance. 💣