$NAORIS Trade Bias: SHORT 📉

Higher Timeframe (4H) Narrative:

We've exploded from 0.031 to 0.046—a +48% vertical move. But look at the funding history: it just spiked to 0.126% . That's not normal. That's euphoric longs paying a premium to hold a parabolic move. The 4H RSI is above 80—deep overbought territory. Every major moving average is miles below price. This is detached from reality.

Lower Timeframe Execution (15m):

Price is stalling at 0.0455. The Bollinger Bands are wide (UP: 0.0469, DN: 0.0382). RSI is diverging hard—price made a higher high, but RSI made a lower high (80 → 75 → 63). That's textbook bearish momentum divergence. Volume is collapsing on the push up (1.8B → 154M → 80M → 21M). The fuel is gone.

Market Psychology & The Trap:

Retail sees +40% and thinks "buy the dip." They see green candles and FOMO in at the top, ignoring that they're paying 0.126% funding per hour to hold. The order book shows ask walls building at 0.046 and 0.047 (176k + 293k + 237k). Smart money is distributing into the euphoria. The late longs are the exit liquidity.

🔥 The Setup:

· Entry Zone: 0.0455 – 0.0460 (wait for a 15m close below 0.0450 to confirm distribution)

· Stop Loss: 0.0470 (above the 24h high and ask wall)

· Target 1: 0.0425 (sweep the mid-BB / recent support)

· Target 2: 0.0390 (prior consolidation / 4H value)

· Target 3: 0.0350 (liquidity grab below the 4H EMAs)

· Risk-to-Reward: 1:3 on first target, 1:6 on full runners

Invalidation: A daily close above 0.0475. That would confirm continuation.

This is a long squeeze setup. The crowd is euphoric, paying massive funding, leaning into ask walls with declining volume. We're not fighting the trend—we're fading the mania. 💣