$ZAMA Trade Idea: The Recovery Trap – Fading the Hype 📉⚠️

I've been watching this structure form since the low at 0.0185. What I'm seeing is a classic dead cat bounce that retail is mistaking for a reversal. The smart money? They're about to distribute into this strength.

The Higher Timeframe Context ⚠️

On the 4H, we're coming off a massive dump from 0.236 down to these levels. That's a 90%+ drawdown. The current bounce from 0.0185 to 0.021 is weak volume compared to the selling that got us here. MA(5) volume dropped from 2B to 108M—that's not accumulation, that's lack of interest. The supertrend is still bearish on the higher timeframes despite this pop.

The Lower Timeframe Execution 💣

Look at the 15m. We're grinding higher but look closely:

· Volume is declining on each up move

· RSI is diverging—price made a higher high at 0.0211, but RSI made a lower high

· STOCHRSI just hit 93 and is rolling over

· We're sitting right under the massive ask wall at 0.022 (367k waiting)

Market Psychology 🧠

Retail sees green candles and thinks "bottom is in, time to long." They're FOMOing into a 7% pump on a coin that's down 90% from highs. They don't realize that the bounce is the trap. The people who bought at 0.018 are taking profits, and the latecomers are buying their bags. The order book tells the story: massive supply at 0.022, thin bids below.

The Trade Plan (Short) 📉

· Entry Zone: 0.02110 – 0.02120 USDT

· Right into the ask wall, fading the overextended bounce

· Stop Loss: 0.02210 USDT

· Above the ask wall—if price clears that, I'm wrong

· Take Profit Levels:

· TP1: 0.02000 (psychological level / round number)

· TP2: 0.01900 (below recent consolidation)

· Risk-to-Reward: 1:3.2 on first target

Invalidation 🚫

A close above 0.02210 means my thesis is dead. The ask wall got eaten, and momentum is stronger than expected. I'm out immediately.