$IR Trade Idea: The Overextended Pump – Selling into the Euphoria 📉⚠️

I've been watching this move since 0.078. What I'm seeing now is textbook distribution—retail chasing green candles while smart money quietly exits. This setup is ripe for a mean reversion.

The Higher Timeframe Context ⚠️

On the 4H, we've ripped from 0.074 to 0.096 in a straight line. That's a 30% move with zero pullback. But here's what matters: volume is declining on each push higher. The first leg up had 240M volume, the latest candle? 4M. That's not accumulation—that's exhaustion. RSI on the 4H is pushing 75, deeply overbought.

The Lower Timeframe Execution 💣

Look at the 15m. We're grinding higher but every oscillator is screaming overextended:

· RSI: 71-74 across multiple timeframes

· STOCHRSI: hit 98.5 and is rolling over

· Price is trading above the upper Bollinger Band

· We're kissing the 0.09697 high with zero volume conviction

· Funding just turned positive (0.005%)—late longs are now paying to hold the top

Market Psychology 🧠

Retail sees +19% and thinks "moon." They're FOMOing in at the highs, looking at the green candles and imagining 0.12, 0.15. They don't realize that the people who bought at 0.078 are selling to them right now. The order book shows thin bids below 0.095—when this turns, there's no support until 0.089.

The Trade Plan (Short) 📉

· Entry Zone: 0.09590 – 0.09650 USDT

· Selling into the final push, right at the 24h high resistance

· Stop Loss: 0.09750 USDT

· Above the recent high—if price clears that, momentum is stronger than expected

· Take Profit Levels:

· TP1: 0.09200 (first support / previous resistance)

· TP2: 0.08900 (below EMA(9) on 15m / psychological level)

· Risk-to-Reward: 1:3.1 on first target

Invalidation 🚫

A close above 0.09750 means my thesis is dead. The breakout is real, and I'm wrong. I'm out immediately—no hesitation, no averaging up.