$RAVE Trade Idea: Fading the Euphoria – Selling the Blow-Off Top 📉⚠️

I've been watching this move since 0.361. What I'm seeing now is textbook exhaustion—retail chasing a vertical pump while smart money distributes into the bids. This setup is screaming for a mean reversion.

The Higher Timeframe Context ⚠️

On the 4H, we've ripped from 0.361 to 0.451 in a straight line. That's a 25% move with barely a pullback. But look closer: volume is collapsing. The first leg had 35M volume, the latest candle? 454k. That's not accumulation—that's a vacuum. RSI on the 4H hit 76 and is diverging. Price made a higher high, momentum made a lower high.

The Lower Timeframe Execution 💣

The 15m tells the real story:

· RSI: 71-77 across multiple timeframes—deeply overbought

· STOCHRSI hit 98.3 and is rolling over hard

· Price is kissing the 0.451 high with zero volume conviction

· Funding just flipped negative (-0.168%)—late longs are now paying to hold the top

· We're sitting under a massive ask wall at 0.45 (179k waiting)

Market Psychology 🧠

Retail sees +16% and thinks "next leg up." They're FOMOing in at the highs, looking at the green candles and imagining 0.50, 0.60. They don't realize that the people who bought at 0.36 are selling them their bags right now. The order book shows thin bids below 0.44—when this turns, there's no support until 0.42.

The Trade Plan (Short) 📉

· Entry Zone: 0.4420 – 0.4450 USDT

· Selling into the final push, right at the ask wall and 24h high resistance

· Stop Loss: 0.4520 USDT

· Above the recent high—if price clears that, momentum is stronger than expected

· Take Profit Levels:

· TP1: 0.4250 (first support / previous resistance)

· TP2: 0.4100 (below EMA(9) on 15m)

· Risk-to-Reward: 1:3.2 on first target

Invalidation 🚫

A close above 0.4520 means my thesis is dead. The breakout is real, and I'm wrong. I'm out immediately—no hesitation.