⚠️ MACRO WARNING: This combo is ugly.
The U.S. just dropped a GDP + inflation mix that markets can’t ignore for long.
1) Growth just cooled fast Q4 GDP: 1.4% (annualized)
Down from 4.4% in Q3 — and below what economists were looking for.
2) Inflation didn’t cool with it The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (PCE) came in hotter than expected:
2.9% YoY vs 2.8% forecast
0.4% MoM vs 0.3% expected
3) Jobs have been barely moving BLS: payrolls in 2025 averaged about +15,000 jobs/month.
Put it together: slowing growth + sticky inflation = stagflation risk.
And this is why the Fed feels boxed in:
Cut too early: inflation can re-ignite
Hold too long: growth can crack further
The next few weeks matter. I’m watching the data like a hawk — and I’ll post the next setup when it’s real.