Oil markets are ending the week with a powerful rally ๐ amid rising geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. President Donald Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the progress of nuclear talks, forcing traders to price in a growing risk premium for a potential military conflict โ ๏ธ๐ฅ
At the close of trading on Friday, February 27, the price of Brent crude futures jumped 2.45% ๐, reaching $72.48 per barrel ๐ข๏ธ**. The US benchmark WTI rose even more significantly โ by **2.78% ๐ฅ, closing at $67.02. These are the highest levels for Brent since July, and for WTI since August 2025 ๐๏ธ๐.
๐จ Reason for the surge: Diplomacy fails and military preparations
The main catalyst for the rise was the failed indirect talks between Washington and Tehran in Geneva on February 26 ๐๏ธ๐คโ. Following their conclusion, Donald Trump made sharp remarks, stating he was "not satisfied" with Iran's position ๐ . Although the US leader expressed hope of avoiding a military scenario, he emphasized: "sometimes you have to do it" ๐ฌ๐ซ. Markets interpreted these words as a signal of the high probability of limited strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in the coming days ๐ฏโข๏ธ.
The situation is intensifying amid the largest deployment of US forces to the Middle East since 2003 ๐โ. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged all Americans to leave Iran immediately, while the UK, Germany, and France have strengthened warnings for their citizens and are partially evacuating diplomatic personnel from the region โ๏ธ๐โ๏ธ๐ช๐บ.
๐๐ข The threat to the Strait of Hormuz
The key risk traders are currently assessing is a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil supplies pass โต๐ข๏ธ๐. According to expert estimates, the current geopolitical premium built into prices ranges from $8 to $10 per barrel ๐ฐ๐.
Analysts note a shift in Riyadh's position: according to sources, Saudi Arabia has prepared plans to increase production and exports in case of supply disruptions from Iran and is no longer obstructing a potential US military operation, provided it is targeted ๐ญ๐ธ๐ฆโ . At the same time, Iran itself, ahead of a possible strike, has sharply increased exports: shipments in February reached their highest level since July 2018 ๐ค๐.
๐๐ Conflicting factors and the OPEC+ meeting
The price increase is happening despite strong fundamental pressure. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) recorded the largest increase in commercial oil inventories in three years โ by 15.989 million barrels for the week โฝ๐โ ๏ธ. Typically, such a figure would cause prices to fall, but geopolitics are currently outweighing the statistics โ๏ธ๐.
All market attention is now focused on two weekend events:
1. ๐๏ธ The negotiation process: A technical meeting of experts in Vienna is scheduled for March 2, but Washington has given Tehran only 10-15 days to reach a deal โณ๐.
2. ๐๏ธ The OPEC+ meeting on March 1: The alliance is expected to confirm plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in April, taking advantage of high prices ๐ข๏ธ๐๐ค.
๐ฎ๐ Forecast: 'Friday effect' and volatility
Traders are facing the classic "Friday effect": no one wants to head into the weekend with short positions, fearing that a military conflict could erupt over the weekend ๐ฐ๐ โ๏ธ. The probability of a strike on Iran by March 1 on the Polymarket platform rose sharply on February 27 from 9% to 26% ๐๐ฏ.
Analysts warn that if diplomacy fails and military action begins, prices could break through the $80 per barrel level for Brent ๐๐ข๏ธ๐ฅ. However, if conflict is avoided, the market expects a correction due to massive US inventories and the OPEC+ decision to increase supply ๐๐.
For investors, a period of maximum uncertainty is beginning: any news from Washington and Tehran in the next 48 hours could trigger sharp movements across all risk assets โณ๐ฐ๐๐.
This information is not an investment recommendation.