Something I’ve learned watching markets during geopolitical crises…

Stability signals matter almost as much as military events.

Confirmation that Iran’s new Supreme Leader is safe sends a message: leadership chain intact.

That prevents the “power vacuum” narrative from spreading further.

If that narrative had grown, markets might have started pricing much bigger regional instability.

Instead now the story becomes more about ongoing conflict rather than internal collapse.

That’s a different kind of risk.

And markets treat those differently.

Interesting times for macro watchers right now.

Do you think leadership stability makes escalation more likely or less likely? 👀
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