Key thesis at $RIVER overview:

~80% liquidity is leverage-driven, only ~20% is real spot demand

Futures volume at 39x spot signals heavy speculation

The March 22 unlock and Season 4 end will be the real liquidity test

🎯 March 22 Unlock Scenarios

1️⃣ Bear case

Unlock brings real selling

Spot can’t absorb → price slips

Liquidations kick in → fast dump

2️⃣ Trap

Small pump before unlock

People think it’s priced in → long more

Then gets sold into → dump anyway

3️⃣Bull case (rare)

Strong spot buying shows up

Supply gets absorbed clean

→ real accumulation

👉 DYOR and think carefully, market conditions right now are fragile and heavily driven by leverage