If $TAO reaches the current MC of $SOL, this is what it could look like
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Recently, I’ve seen some CTs talking about this scenario. It sounds very bullish, but I actually think this scenario is possible.
Why do I say that? I’ll explain more clearly below.
[1] First, let’s look at the market cap of $SOL and $TAO
– $SOL MC ≈ $51B
– $TAO MC ≈ $3.6B
– Multiplier ≈ ~14x
→ That means at the current $TAO price of ~$339, the target at $SOL’s market cap would be around ~$4,700-4,800
But if we calculate using FDV (more conservative):
→ The target would be around ~$2,400. This shows that the upside for $TAO is real, but it only happens if the network continues to grow. I’ll explain this more below.
[2] Conditions for this scenario to happen
In my view, for $TAO to reach that level, a few conditions need to be met:
– Subnets need to generate real and sustainable usage.
– AI demand needs to translate into onchain compute.
– Institutional capital needs to increase, not just Grayscale but more funds accumulating $TAO.
– VC capital rotates into $TAO instead of investing in “AI projects” without real products.
→ If these factors align, re-rating can happen quickly, and reaching $SOL’s level becomes possible
[3] Why I think this scenario is realistic
There are fundamental factors supporting this view:
– AI is becoming one of the biggest global narratives.
– $TAO is positioned as decentralized AI infrastructure.
– Subnets are scaling fast (32 → 128 → targeting 256).
– ~70%+ of supply is staked → strong supply constraint.
– $TAO can be seen as the “Bitcoin of AI”, as I explained in my previous posts, with similar structural properties.
Overall, I don’t think $TAO will replace $SOL.
But I do think TAO reaching the current mc of $SOL is a reasonable scenario over time, especially if AI continues to grow and TAO secures its position in that market.
That’s why I continue to hold and accumulate $TAO.
Ofc, NFA.