Did the U.S. really only destroy one-third of Iran's missiles?
As the battle nears the end of its first month, it seems that the reality is not as clear-cut as initial political declarations made it seem. According to five U.S. intelligence sources quoted by Reuters, the new assessment is significantly less certain:
About a third of Iran's missiles are known to have been destroyed. Another third is thought to be destroyed or buried in subsurface facilities, but this has not been confirmed. The latter third is still missing.
The lack of a clear baseline makes things even more complicated. Different sources give different numbers for Iran's missile stockpile before the war. Some say there were roughly 2,500 missiles, while others say there were as many as 6,000.
At the same time, tensions are escalating in ways other than frontal attacks. Reports say that Iran has sought to limit trade through the Strait of Hormuz. IRGC naval personnel have warned off and turned back several commercial ships. The U.S., on the other hand, is thinking about sending Marines to the area.
If that escalation happens, the conflict might enter a much more unpredictable phase, where timescales become unknown and the cost of keeping things under control goes up a lot.
