🔴 BREAKING: The Federal Reserve Will NOT Cut Interest Rates at the April 2026 Meeting!
Markets are crystal clear: Probability of a rate cut = 0% for the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting.
- Probability of No Change at the current 3.50% - 3.75% range: 97.9% (as high as 98.4% in recent updates).
- Probability of a Hike: Around 1-2% only.
This means a near-certain hold on rates in the upcoming meeting.
Current Situation (April 2026):
The federal funds rate has been steady for months at 3.50% - 3.75%. The Fed’s March 2026 projections still see one rate cut for the full year 2026 (and possibly another in 2027), but market odds have become more cautious due to higher oil prices and inflation pressures from geopolitical developments.
Some traders now assign around 30-34% probability that there will be no cuts at all in 2026.
The decision remains 100% data-dependent — Jerome Powell is waiting for clearer signals from inflation reports and the labor market.
The US Dollar stays strong while markets remain on high alert.
