I just checked the latest FedWatch data after the Non‑Farm Payrolls report dropped, and the shift is decisive. The probability of the Fed holding rates steady at the June meeting has jumped to 95.5% up from lower levels just a week ago.
Remember when markets were pricing in a small chance of a hike? That’s now down to just 0.5%. Even the odds of a cut have collapsed to 4%. The jobs report must have come in strong enough to ease recession fears but not so hot as to force the Fed’s hand. The sweet spot, basically. Employers are still hiring, wages aren’t spiraling, and the consumer, while stressed, isn’t collapsing. That gives the Fed room to just… wait.
From my point of view, this is the clearest signal yet that the “higher for longer” narrative is locked in for the first half of 2026. The market had been flirting with the idea of a cut by summer, but that window is closing fast. Inflation expectations are still elevated 6.2% per the latest consumer survey and oil prices remain volatile. The Fed can’t ease into that environment without risking a reacceleration.
What does this mean for crypto? In the short term, it removes the uncertainty of a surprise move. Markets hate surprises. A 95.5% probability of a hold is as close to a guarantee as you get. That stability could allow risk assets to find a footing. But longer term, it means liquidity remains tight. No rate cuts means no cheap money flood. We’re in a grind environment not a crash, but not a party either.
I’m watching the June meeting for any shift in language. But for now, the jobs report has spoken: the Fed is on hold, and the market is finally believing it.
#FedWatch #ADPJobsSurge #DriftProtocolExploited #BitmineIncreasesETHStake #USNoKingsProtests $D $ONG $EDGE
