📊 TRADING PERFORMANCE & FEAR AND GREED INDEX (FGI) REPORT – UPDATED 04/04/2026
The statistical data shows that the correlation coefficient between the FGI and Winrate remains low and continues to lean negative (r ~ -0.30). This result further reinforces that FGI is not suitable as a tool for forecasting price direction or identifying trade entries, but it still has practical value in quantifying position risk. In particular, trading performance generally continues to weaken when market sentiment moves into extreme euphoria, so FGI is better suited as an early risk warning signal rather than a signal for expanding profit targets.
Below is a summary of Winrate (WR), minimum breakeven R:R, and the number of observed days (n) across sentiment zones for reference:
🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): WR 40.5% • R:R=1:1.47 • n=25
🤤 Greed (60–80): WR 45.1% • R:R=1:1.22 • n=215
😐 Neutral (40–60): WR 45.6% • R:R=1:1.19 • n=138
😨 Fear (20–40): WR 46.7% • R:R=1:1.14 • n=180
😱 Extreme Fear (<20): WR 52.6% • R:R=1:0.90 • n=83
The share of days with performance above the average level (46.44%) by sentiment zone:
🤑 Extreme Greed: 8.0%
🤤 Greed: 37.2%
😐 Neutral: 41.3%
😨 Fear: 52.2%
😱 Extreme Fear: 68.7%
➤ Short-term traders can use FGI as a guide to adjust expected profit targets when entering trades:
📈 When FGI is high, the expected profit target should be raised to ensure the R:R is large enough to offset the risk of a lower win rate.
📉 When FGI is low, the expected profit target can be reduced to increase capital turnover speed and make profit realization easier.