Executive Summary
Goldman Sachs cautions that genuine oil supply shortages are imminent as final pre-war tankers complete their journeys
Asian crude imports plummeted 9 million barrels daily by late March
Refined fuel costs, including diesel, have skyrocketed as much as 150% amid fierce supply competition
Manila has announced a nationwide fuel crisis; Australian service stations face widespread depletion
WTI crude jumped 11.4% to $111.54/barrel following Trump’s commitment to intensify military operations
The ongoing US-Israeli offensive against Iran has successfully blocked the Strait of Hormuz, the planet’s single most vital petroleum shipping corridor. Goldman Sachs is now alerting global markets that petroleum shortages have evolved from theoretical concern to tangible threat across numerous nations.
Prior to hostilities commencing, approximately 138 tankers navigated the strait daily. That figure has collapsed more than 90%, with daily passages frequently dropping into single-digit territory. Under normal circumstances, this waterway handles roughly 20 million barrels of crude daily—approximately one-fifth of worldwide seaborne petroleum movement.
Goldman Sachs strategist Daan Struyven noted in a recent client briefing that vessels which successfully transited before combat erupted are now completing their final deliveries. This development signals the depletion of the inventory buffer that accumulated prior to the conflict’s outbreak.
The investment bank’s analytical team examined the crisis through three distinct lenses: product availability, market pricing dynamics, and tangible ground-level consequences.
Asian Markets Bear Initial Brunt
Crude petroleum imports across Asia contracted by a net 9 million barrels per day by March’s conclusion. Petrochemical raw materials including naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas were already experiencing scarcity before military action began, compounding current difficulties.
The supply disruption’s effects didn’t materialize until late March due to extended maritime transit durations. Certain economies, notably Japan, have leveraged strategic petroleum reserves to cushion the impact.
Regarding market prices, refined petroleum products such as diesel have witnessed price explosions reaching 150%. This surge partially reflects wealthy nations aggressively bidding for available supplies, including aviation fuel.
The Philippine government has proclaimed a nationwide fuel emergency. Seoul has imposed restrictions on government vehicle operations. Across Australia, numerous filling stations have completely exhausted gasoline inventories.
Presidential Escalation Shakes Markets
Oil prices have experienced dramatic volatility throughout the military engagement. After momentarily falling under $100 per barrel in late March on ceasefire speculation, crude costs spiked dramatically following President Trump’s April 1 statement. He vowed to strike Iran “extremely hard” over the subsequent two to three weeks.
WTI crude surged 11.4% to reach $111.54 per barrel on April 2. Brent crude climbed to $109.03 per barrel.
During the weekend, Trump posted via Truth Social threatening Iran to reopen the strait or face military strikes targeting power infrastructure and bridges. He established a Tuesday evening ultimatum for Iranian compliance.
Market Expert Perspectives
Ben Emons of Fed Watch Advisors emphasized that petroleum movement through the strait holds greater market significance than production capacity itself. He drew parallels between a potential strait reopening and pandemic-era economic restart, characterizing it as a form of economic stimulus for worldwide markets.
Goldman’s analysis refrained from establishing definitive timelines regarding when shortages reach critical thresholds. Iraq has announced receiving Iranian authorization for its oil tankers to navigate the strait, potentially providing marginal relief.
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