نشر
Jennifer Zynn
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🚨 WARNING: THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING!
What people were warning about may be the next step now.
Yesterday, Trump wrote that Iran has 48 hours to MAKE A DEAL or OPEN UP THE HORMUZ STRAIT.
And Monday will be the day markets start pricing that reality.
If you think this is just another headline that markets will ignore
YOU ARE COMPLETELY WRONG.
This setup is VERY different from the last symbolic threats.
Because when a deadline gets attached to Hormuz, the market stops pricing noise and starts pricing escalation, duration, and supply risk all at once.
And duration is where the real damage starts.
There are only a few ways this goes from here, and they are NOT equal.
- LIGHT SHOCK: Monday brings the signal, oil pumps, and markets try to stabilize after the first panic.
- HEAVIER SCENARIO: the deadline passes, the threat gets real, and uncertainty starts hitting oil, shipping, inflation, and military risk all at once.
- WORST CASE: the market starts pricing direct damage to Iran’s export system, and the whole macro picture changes in hours.
That last one is the REAL danger.
Also, Kharg Island handles about 90% of Iran’s oil exports.
Now connect the dots.
Brent has already pumped about 59% this month.
That's the market telling you the risk premium is already building before the full chain reaction even hits.
So the point is simple.
If Monday becomes the day the market starts pricing the next phase, oil does NOT need to move a little.
It can pump HARD.
And if the market starts pricing damage to Kharg or a deeper Hormuz shock, Brent can move to $153.85 on average, with some scenarios as high as $200.
Read that again.
$153.85 average.
$200 in the worst case.
That is NOT just higher oil.
That's a full COST shock.
And that's NOT bullish for any market that needs cheap energy and easy money to survive.
This can still end as a short shock.
What people were warning about may be the next step now.
Yesterday, Trump wrote that Iran has 48 hours to MAKE A DEAL or OPEN UP THE HORMUZ STRAIT.
And Monday will be the day markets start pricing that reality.
If you think this is just another headline that markets will ignore
YOU ARE COMPLETELY WRONG.
This setup is VERY different from the last symbolic threats.
Because when a deadline gets attached to Hormuz, the market stops pricing noise and starts pricing escalation, duration, and supply risk all at once.
And duration is where the real damage starts.
There are only a few ways this goes from here, and they are NOT equal.
- LIGHT SHOCK: Monday brings the signal, oil pumps, and markets try to stabilize after the first panic.
- HEAVIER SCENARIO: the deadline passes, the threat gets real, and uncertainty starts hitting oil, shipping, inflation, and military risk all at once.
- WORST CASE: the market starts pricing direct damage to Iran’s export system, and the whole macro picture changes in hours.
That last one is the REAL danger.
Also, Kharg Island handles about 90% of Iran’s oil exports.
Now connect the dots.
Brent has already pumped about 59% this month.
That's the market telling you the risk premium is already building before the full chain reaction even hits.
So the point is simple.
If Monday becomes the day the market starts pricing the next phase, oil does NOT need to move a little.
It can pump HARD.
And if the market starts pricing damage to Kharg or a deeper Hormuz shock, Brent can move to $153.85 on average, with some scenarios as high as $200.
Read that again.
$153.85 average.
$200 in the worst case.
That is NOT just higher oil.
That's a full COST shock.
And that's NOT bullish for any market that needs cheap energy and easy money to survive.
This can still end as a short shock.
إخلاء المسؤولية: تتضمن آراء أطراف خارجية. ليست نصيحةً مالية. يُمكن أن تحتوي على مُحتوى مُمول. اطلع على الشروط والأحكام.