I've seen pullbacks like this one in October 2025 as classic healthy corrections within a broader bull structure—nothing more than the market exhaling excess froth after BTC's parabolic run to $126K ATH on Oct 6.
The trigger? A geopolitical flare-up mid-month: Trump's renewed U.S.-China trade war rhetoric on Oct 10, escalating rare-earth export curbs, sparked a historic flash crash. BTC plunged 14% from $122.5K to $104.6K in hours, ETH shed 21%, and altcoins cratered 50-90% in spots, wiping $370B off total cap and liquidating a record $19B in leveraged longs amid $65B open interest evaporation. This was amplified by cascading margin calls, ETF outflows (hundreds of millions fleeing spot products), and a brief stablecoin depeg on Binance, exposing thin liquidity when tradfi was closed.
Fast-forward to today: BTC's stabilized above $107K support, with total cap at $3.76T after a mild 2.3% daily dip, volume at $156B signaling consolidation rather than panic. Fear & Greed at 33 (up from 30) reflects wariness but not capitulation—bulls failed retests on Oct 13/20, yet on-chain flows hold firm, hinting at accumulation.
My take? This is a textbook 10-20% retrace to the 50-day EMA, flushing weak hands and resetting leverage for the next leg up. Watch $107K-$108K as the line in the sand—if it holds, we're eyeing $115K resistance and a bounce to $120K+ by EOM; a breach opens $100K-$98K, but that's buy-the-dip territory for me, not bearish Armageddon. Position sizing stays conservative: 1-2% risk per trade, stacking sats on volume spikes. Volatility's the game—embrace it.