Current Price & Short-Term Bias: BTC trades at approximately $109,000–$111,000, reflecting a bearish short-term bias amid profit-taking and corrective pullbacks from recent all-time highs near $126,000. Technical indicators show declining momentum (e.g., weekly RSI triple bearish divergence), with support at $100,000–$103,000 at risk; failure here could target $90,000. Fear & Greed Index sits at 25–29 (Extreme Fear), signaling oversold conditions but heightened downside risk from spot selling pressure and neutral-to-bearish options skew (puts trading at premiums through 2026).
Medium-Term Outlook: Neutral-to-bullish tilt persists, driven by historical "Uptober" seasonality (average +21% gains) and Q4 strength. Institutional inflows into BTC ETFs outpace 2024 levels, while short-term holder supply remains tempered (18% of circulating BTC, below prior peaks), indicating no euphoria yet. Potential rebound targets $115,000–$120,000 if support holds, with longer forecasts eyeing $168,000 by year-end amid liquidity-driven cycles.
Key Risks: Macro headwinds (e.g., geopolitical tensions) and elevated volatility could extend the correction, but sidelined bids suggest absorption over capitulation. Overall sentiment: Cautiously optimistic beyond the dip.