In the previous Lab Notes, we outlined the key scenarios and the market delivered. But now comes the more important question: what’s next - especially as early signs of exhaustion begin to appear across key markets.
The $US
. Dollar index (DX.F)
We begin Today’s Lab Note with a quick return to Friday’s quote:
(…) today’s small bullish gap has already been partially filled, which increases the risk of further downside (…)
If that happens, the next step becomes straightforward.
A retest of the nearest support zone at 97.56-97.82 (still tied to the open March 2nd gap) becomes the base case.(…)”
From today’s perspective, we can see that the scenario played out as expected, with the dollar extending lower and printing a new local low on Friday.
That move once again tested the key green support zone, and it held. The defense of that area triggered a higher open to start the week, with a bullish gap during the Asian session pushing the dollar back above the orange consolidation.
Technically, that’s a constructive signal, but the follow-through tells a different story.
Buyers failed to maintain those gains, and the gap has already been filled. At the time of writing, the index is trading back below the lower boundary of the consolidation, which suggests that another retest of the key support zone may be just around the corner.
Key Levels to Watch:
Supports: 97.56-97.82 (green support zone) / 97.36
Resistances: 98.15/98.16 / 98.60 / 98.75-99.68