๐ WIN RATE & FEAR-GREED INDEX (FGI) ANALYSIS โ updated through 2025-10-25
Daily community scalping win-rate data shows the FGIโwin rate correlation remains very weak (โ -0.10). Win rate does not track FGI linearly; the โExtreme Greedโ zone remains the riskiest for performance.
๐ Quick take
In Fear (20โ<40) and Neutral (40โ60), performance hovers around the average, with Neutral slightly higher. Greed (60โ<80) shows no clear improvement. Extreme Greed (โฅ80) drags the win rate down sharply. Extreme Fear (<20) has a small sample, so treat it as indicative only.
๐ Average win rate by FGI band (with days)
๐จ Extreme Fear (<20): 45.93% โ n=5
๐ Fear (20โ<40): 45.54% โ n=110
๐ Neutral (40โ60): 45.21% โ n=126
๐ Greed (60โ<80): 44.92% โ n=214
๐ค Extreme Greed (โฅ80): 40.52% โ n=25 (lowest)
Share of days above the overall average (44.92%) by band:
Extreme Fear 60.00% โข Fear 55.45% โข Neutral 48.41% โข Greed 45.33% โข Extreme Greed 12.00%.
๐ Implications for scalping
โค FGI โฅ80: lower TP expectations, tighten SL, favor early profit-taking when momentum fades.
โค FGI 20โ<80: keep R:R discipline; avoid stretching TP due to FOMO (differences across Fear/Neutral/Greed arenโt large enough to warrant a wholesale strategy shift).
โค FGI <20: small sample โ handle with care; priority remains order management.