Talks between the US and Iran broke down.
No deal going into the weekend leaves the market with open risk and no clear direction.
Funds had time to act before the open. Exposure cut, risk reduced, some capital moved to cash.
So Monday doesn’t start from neutral. It starts with an imbalance.
What matters early:
- First 30–60 minutes
- How price behaves around Friday’s low
- Whether buyers show up at all
If that demand isn’t there, selling doesn’t need a push. It just continues.
You usually see the same sequence in setups like this:
- Oil reacts first, even a +3% to +6% move is enough
- Yields pick it up, +10–20 bps on the US 10Y
- Equities open under pressure, -2% to -4% is where things start getting unstable
After that it connects on its own.
Oil lifts inflation expectations, yields follow, equities adjust. No new headlines required once that loop starts.
Liquidity is different after weekends like this.
Book is thinner, spreads are wider, and moves stretch more than people expect. Small bounces don’t hold for long.
How Monday can go:
1. Early support holds
Buyers step in quickly, market stabilizes within the first hours
2. Weak tone all day
Open under pressure, price stays below Friday close, sellers keep control
3. It slides
Levels give way early, no real push back, selling builds into the close
Key areas:
- Friday low
- Pre-market range
- First hour high and low
When the next move becomes clear, I’ll share it.
Follow and turn notifications on.
Because by the time it hits the headlines, it’s already too late.
Trade Top Assets Accordingly 👇🏻
